Take a look at Iran's position on the map. It is surrounded by nuclear nations: China, India, Pakistan, Israel, Russia, and France. Furthermore, Iran is entangled into proxy war that is spiraling into a camp divide of the World Powers with America-Europe on one side and the Russo-Asian camp on the other.

With the Military intervention in Syria by Russia; the scenario of Middle East changed as strategic military alignments took form to project national interest 'hegemoned' as a form of regional warfare. A democratic, liberal and secular Turkey harboured terrorists and unleashed a political suicide mission by engaging in war on Kurdish PKK and the collaboration with ISIS proved detrimental to the status quo of Turkish leadership. The responsibility mainly lies with the politicians and the top brass of military leadership. Crony capitalism and rampant patronage of vested institutional interests will undermine peace efforts as active military engagement spell misuse of authority.

After the episode of Russian Intervention and Turkish reaction of shooting Russian jet, events took a turn as Saudi-Iranian rivalry came to the fore. It initiated a Chinese and Pakistani reaction. Both countries understand that a balancing act is needed in Asia . With the first phase of 2016 American elections, the major emerging American issue is national politics instead of hometown industries or state-level policies. It is concerned with Syria, immigrants, terrorism, economy etc. Factoring all these issues add up to one pivot: China. Trump in his election campaign has uttered the word, 'China' on innumerable occasions and immeasurable number of times.

The emergence of China is a story of decades but has only started to show international presence for the last couple of years. November 2014 marked China as the largest economy in the world surpassing America that held the record for 150 years. An interesting factor in American elections is the Obama legacy where Sanders presents himself a bolder choice to continue on; while, Hillary hits the traditional Democratic stand on national issues like economy, foreign policy and social programs. The interesting thing to note is the military-establishment backing provided to Hillary Clinton. This comes at a time when US and allies are focusing on African intervention programs with Libya chapter already being pursued these days.

Unsurprisingly, China has opened the first international naval base in Djibouti, a disengagement from their principled view of not establishing military presence in other countries. Ben Carson in the Presidential debate uncovered a development that had been kept secret i.e. China has approved 5,000 military personnel for Syria. This was denied by Pentagon but the Chinese stance was affirmed through its Anti-Terrorism Law, which was passed a couple of weeks ago that allows to engage in international matters. The present case is war against ISIS.

Speaking about China's Djibouti Plan, it is inherently important to mention George Freedman who wrote books The Next Decade and The Next 100 Years, where he terms American control on seas as the perpetual projection of its international status as global power. China has gone a step further to edge out and eliminate US presence in Asia and Africa by neutralising the terrible consequences of neo-interventionism of western nations.

Sectarianism and militancy emerged after Iraq and Afghanistan were attacked. The 'Greater Middle East' is how the sectarian differences and nationalism under dictatorial regimes have trounced the chances of survival of democratic forces in Middle East. US policy towards China will tremendously affect the world system. The idea is echoed by The National Interest magazine, 'the Chinese public relations offensive combined with its new base means that Beijing is in Africa for the long haul. Going forward in the years to come, Beijing could edge out western influence in the region and secure success access to the continent.' US Army General David Rodriguez, Commander of US Africa command, recently told Defense reporters that the Chinese base would serve as a logistics hub for China to be ''able to extend their reach.'' Americans may respond in Vietnam, Philippines, Japan, Taiwan and Korea. Determinably, China has planted strong roots of relationship with ASEAN Organisation.

Across the chaotic crossroad that Middle East has emerged in the aftermath of Arab Spring, countries like Jordan and Israel have remained undeterred in establishing their position as progressive nation-states. This involves these countries blazing the path through the ever-changing fast developments on the international horizon. Israel is facing challenges in establishing democratic credentials as BDS movements, EU recognition of Palestine and Iranian nuclear deal have proved to be a fatal blow to Israel's diplomacy. Israeli ministers have issued statements that Al Nusra is more dangerous than ISIS. Gilad Erdan, Israel's Minister of Strategic Affairs, has announced at Cyber Tech Conference in Tel Aviv that Israeli Government has vowed to launch an 'electronic war' against BDS. Ayelet Shaked, Israel's Law & Justice Minister, who has termed Kurds as 'Jew-friendly entity' -  who should be helped in carving out  a Kurdish State that would seperate Turkey and Iran. It is pertinent to mention that Gulf States like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan are divided on issues that do not involve Iran. With Russia, Gulf countries like Qatar and Egypt have forged strategic alliances; after the Chinese premier's visit to Saudi Arab and Iran.

The Suez Canal, Gwadar, Chabahar, Strait of Malacca, Cape of Good Hope, Mediterranean Sea, Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea, Strait of Gibraltar, and Yellow Sea are military flash-points. On the top of all this, there is a nation that stands for its right to exist and for that; it has followed a judicial, democratic, diplomatic and militaristic struggle across the heartland of oil and trade in the world. It is the nation of Kurds. They have sought freedom and fought against state discrimination and, defended their people against ISIS. They seek acceptance of 'Kurdish identity', the largest ethnicity that does not have a nation-state .The Kurdish people, naturally, possess democratic virtues.

As Fateh Al-Sisi intends to widen his base for political support in order to deter any challenge to his credibility or eligibility, he is weighing his options from the American camp to Russian camp. For now, this policy is proving beneficial. There is a Middle Eastern and Asian factor that military dictators have a tendency to ignore: the democratic outlook of the people they rule.

In Tunisia, we are witnessing the return of popular protests. This indicates two major factors in the circumstances. Firstly, the demand of people is neither political nor ideological, but the sense is social: the oppression and tyranny through poverty, marginalisation and suffering. In Egypt, the Army has been given special platforms in a privileged manner to loot the country's wealth which has surfaced to be the worst form of injustice as the ' colonised' masses are denied control over anything that provides them with an opportunity to escape the vicious circle that grips them in dependence, intellectual decadence, under-development and colonialism. Secondly, the revolutionary masses seek 'social justice'. This involves freedom to speak against corruption and political activism. The situation in Tunisia is returning to the point of first Arab Spring 2010-11 when Youth had started to form a line in the sand against the Ben Ali regime. There is still a raging battle between the revolutionary and counter-revolutionary forces as non-politicised and non-partisan youth are engaging against those undemocratic parties, including Islamists, who did not engage in the transitional phase but are dividing the Tunisian cake while derailing any reforms. Egyptian politics is no different. Fateh Al-Sisi seeks endorsement from all factions. Accountability is compromised as if law has no meaning and fairness has no place. Vandals have followed colonialist policies and have been supported by new ever-moneyed forces.

In contrast, Pakistani society seeks better reforms at socio-economic and political level. It has to be mentioned that a lot of work needs to be done. This mantle can only be achieved if there comes forward a political elite that sheds ideological affiliations and conflictual standpoints in order to establish a national ceiling for revolutionary achievements in all walks of life. CPEC is nothing new after Kalabagh was made controversial. It is true regarding the measures that have improved situation on the ground have come through civilian regimes. If the civilian system of rule endures, it will witness many more 'Karachi operations', not to forget that all Anti-Terror operations by Army have been carried out in civilian governments era. In Western Asia , India and Iran are two social democracies that have lived up to the Institutional evolution that have dwarfed the existence of patronised and priveleged networks through progressively, liberal socio-economic policies inhibited in the outlook of political order. Af-Pak region requires the same operation.

China's rise conspicuously strikes a balance with the norms mentioned in Sun Tzu's Art of War and the famous philosophy of diplomacy of Deng Xiaoping. Democracy is in crisis in Asia and Africa. Pakistan's political instability is its greatest vulnerability. Neither India nor Pakistan can risk a nuclear war. However, the global powers alignment has set motion for tectonic shifts that would undermine the political stability of Middle East. Failure to implement a two-state solution (endorsing Apartheidism) while sectarian fire is raging would only mean more intense hostilities. Iran's nuclear deal with Western powers finalises while Saudi Arabia replaces Israel as new rival of Iran - which is a prologue of what's next to come. Any attack on a Muslim country (The NATO's Libyan episode may be repeated in Syria, Egypt, Iran, or Pakistan) would turn ripples of hostility into waves of aggressive attacks. Turkey would adopt a militaristic Ottoman stance. Russia will capitalise and China will have a free hand in pursuing their interests.

In this situation, we have to determine the cause of conflict. Oil is a weapon that has been utilised on international level through proxy wars. However, engaging in criminal act of blocking water to neighbouring country will inevitably lead to an outbreak of full-scale war. Turkey will attempt to block Euphrates River that flows through Syria and falls into Gulf through its course in Iraq, while Gulf nations like Egypt, Jordan or Syria will be entangled in military combat with each other. There is a new episode that projects the confrontation scenario being repeated all over again.

Throughout 1980s, Iraq-Iran war and Afghan War created instability. In 1990s, Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and a nuclear standoff between Pakistan and India depicted a risky business. From Bhutto to Zia to Nawaz, a pattern evolved and solidified. The infamous politics of 90s was the emerging face of Pakistan's democratic outlook, nevertheless, another element was in full-scale working behind the scenes. We have forgotten those times: Brasstacks 1987, Kashmir Compound crisis 1990 and as Vipin Narang, the author of Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict classified in his book Catalytic and Asymmetric Escalation. The Brasstacks 1987 was associated with military postures around Khalistani Movement that led to intense military escalation. Kashmir Compound Crisis 1990 was something ' that reminded me of August 1914 ', were the words of Robert Gates, the then Deputy NSA. The unprecedented American alarming interest in taking measures to avoid Indo-Pak confrontation was according to Seymour Hersh: 'as close as we've come to a nuclear exchange. It was far more frightening than the Cuban crisis'. This was catalytic nuclear posture which capitalised on US intervention on Pakistan's behalf against India's overtures in 1987-90.

The second phase of Pakistan Nuclear doctrine post-1991 was further developed on base of optimisation theory (massive retaliation to flexible response) when India had done the nuclear test and it provided Pakistan some political cover in May 1998 Chaghi Tests.  Israel has moved from Catalytic Escalation to Assured Retaliation. 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli war laid foundation of Israel's security driven policy. Post 1991 Iraqi factor proved to be the turning point to engage in Assured Retaliation posture as Osirak Nuclear Station in Iraq were attacked during Saddam's reign. Hence, Israel also adopted Optimization Theory post 1991. Both, Israel and Pakistan, have relied on third party as patron - unlike India. India has three factors to look upon: Pakistan, China and civil-military relations; aside from developing 'Assured Retaliation with Minimum Deterrence strategy.' China, US and Russia have developed the most advanced forms of Nuclear warheads assimilated into Army. France and South Africa also actively pursued Nuclear Politics in the 90s era.

Three issues at international level over the period of time have become increasingly important, urgent and dangerous. The first issue is Syria. numerous countries have become stakeholders in the conflict and that too, on different levels of conflict. The second issue is the threat of war that looms in and around Asia , East Europe and Africa between NATO and Anti NATO elements. Russia has accused Turkey of breaching 'Open Skies' International treaty. Russia cannot carry out Air Surveillance on Syria-Turkey border after having detected massive Turkish Army activity. Turkey is in the weakest position ever after Russian bombardment and Syrian Army's onslaught. US and France have blamed Russian for seeking military solution. In this instance, Saudi Arab and UAE’s Foreign Office has announced support troops for US Allies in Syria for ground operations. Lastly, the emergence of invisible wars has led to a paradigm shift in warfare methods. All the three issues undermine true values of democracy and determines milltarisation of internal and foreign policies of a state where regional dynamics are replacing nation-state dynamics. The maths of oil wars by Saudis has been wrong along. In the meantime, Iran will leverage all its tactics.

Between the Russo-American rivalry, the Chinese have remarkably achieved success in bringing adjustments to the socio-political systemic needs of rising middle class while evolving a capitalist system with Chinese characteristics. This has been consistent with the build-up of China's foreign policy that aims at following policy of non-interference and consensus. However, disembarking from the principled Chinese norm; China has started to indulge in active engagement on International level. America's eroding status as most powerful nation has led to imbalance in world affairs. Indo-Pak diplomacy will need another cleansing phase that evolves above Brass-tacks and Kashmir Compound crisis. This will come from respect for democratic norms, traditions and institutions with education and poverty-alleviation being highly prioritised nodes.  Thus, balance can be restored through evolutionary democracy among Asian nations, particularly, among the Muslims residing in Asia . This requires shedding off the slavish mentality endorsed by their patrons.