The nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 continues to be an issue that is pushing nations to franticly revaluate their regional standings and respond accordingly. It also continues to be a major electoral point being pushed by the Republicans, who have found both likely and unlikely allies in the quest to stop this deal – Saudi Arabia and Israel. A peaceful outcome to this complex situation requires a fine balancing act; not just by the Obama administration, but by other peripheral players as well, including Pakistan.
It is remarkable that the US Congress seeks to control the ability of the President to make peace, but allows for “executive prerogative” when he makes the decision to go to war. On May 14, Congress passed legislation giving it powers to review any nuclear agreement reached with Iran next month. The ability of this measure to act as an impediment to the deal depends on the Obama administration’s determination. Once – and if – the final deal comes under review, the debate will be more partisan than the one that preceded the passing of the bill; many democrats support the deal but also support the power of the Congress to review. It the congress rejects the deal, Obama still has the power to veto it, effectively ensuring the deal goes through as it is unlikely that the republicans can conjure up enough votes to overturn a veto. Yet overriding the wishes of the congress – and by extension, the people – would invite intense criticism on Obama, which will spill over on future democrat presidential candidates. How Obama balances the necessity of the deal with opposition remains to be seen.
This campaign in Washington is being matched by an international drive orchestrated by Israel and Saudi Arabia; both of which have grown more and more desperate as progress continues at the talks. Saudi Arabia has proposed a NATO-esque security pact with west as counterweight to the deal – on rejection of which it has asked for similar nuclear concessions as the ones offered to Iran, perhaps even a nuclear weapon. This again requires a balancing act of which Pakistan – being the kingdom’s closest ally with nuclear capacity – is a part. The need to cater to the fears of the Gulf and Israel must be balanced against the concerns that pandering to the kingdom will make the region more volatile. Pakistan dodged a bullet once when asked to send troops. Can it do so again?