ISLAMABAD - The country is going to miss the cotton production target this year as well and that too by a huge margin, which would further push the agriculture growth of the country into negative zone.

According to Ministry of Textiles data, a target of 14.1 million bales was set for the year 2016-17. However, cotton sowing fell short by 20.82 percent in Punjab, leading to overall 15.78 less sowing at the national level.

Since 2009, cotton production is on the decline while other competing crops outputs are increasing. In 2009-10, the cotton production was 12914 thousand bales, in 2010-11 it reduced to 11460000 bales, next year it was 13595000, and after gradually decreasing every year the cotton production decreased to 10074000 bales in year 2015-16.

In the meanwhile, the farmers started shifting to other crops from cotton as the production of competitive crops like sugarcane, rice and maize increased during last five years. During 2009-10 sugarcane production was merely 49373 tonnes which grew to 65475 tonnes in 2015-16, while rice production in 2009-10 was 6883 tonnes which increased to 6811 in 2015-16. Maize production in 2009-10 was 3261 tonnes which increased to 4920 tonnes in 2015-16.

In year 2004-05 cotton production was 14.265 million bales which reduced to 13.019m bales in 2005-06. In 2006-07, the production was 12.856 million bales and next year in 2007-08 it reduced to 11.655 million bales. In 2008-09, cotton production fell to 11.89m bales and in 2009-10 it recovered a bit, reaching 12.914 million bales. Since 2010 cotton production is on a continuous decline except year 2014-15. In 2010-11, production was 11.460 million bales, in 2011-12 it was 13.595 million bales, in 2012-13 13.031 million bales and in 2013-14 it shrank to 12.769 million bales. In year 2014-15, cotton production again improved to 13.960 million bales but next year in 2015-16 it again fell drastically. In 2015-16, cotton output could only touch 10.074 million bales.

The decrease in cotton production adversely effected the agriculture growth. In year 2004-05, the agriculture growth was 6.5 percent, which gradually reduced to negative in 2015-16. Year-wise, the growth was 6.3 percent in 2005-06, 3.4 percent in 2006-07, 1.8pc in 2007-08, and in 2008-09, the growth remained 3.5 percent.

After 2008-09, there was a sharp decline in agri growth and it reduced to 0.2 percent. In 2010-11, the growth was 2.0 percent, in year 2011-12 it touched 3.6 percent, in 2012-13 the growth was 2.7 percent while in 2013-14 and 2014-15 it remained 2.5 percent. In 2015-16, as the cotton production fell to 10.074 million bales the agriculture growth of the country plunged into negative zone of 0.2 percent. This year too, the agriculture growth is likely to remain negative.

“The major reason for the less cotton sowing was low cotton prices during previous year (2015-16), said Dr Khalid Abdullah, Cotton Commissioner, Ministry of Textiles. Highlighting efforts of government to support farmers in improving cotton production, Dr Abdulllah said measures have been taken for ample supply of quality cotton seed and loans.

Quoting State Bank, he said an amount of Rs 700 billion has been allocated for agricultural loans to be disbursed by commercial banks and micro finance institutions. Out of this target, Rs 10 billion have so far been disbursed among 35000 cotton farmers of Punjab and Sindh.

The SBP has also launched mandatory crop insurance policy for five major crops, including wheat, rice, sugarcane, cotton and maize, he said. He said ZaraiTaraqiati Bank’s target for cotton crop-specific loans have been target at 60 percent of total loans.