Stock market suffers 815 points loss on panic-selling

LAHORE - The equity market during the outgoing week took a record plunge of around 815 points due to panic-selling generated by the turmoil on the global share markets on the back of a huge drop in the oil rates at international level. The Karachi Stock Exchange remained bearish throughout the week, as it lost around 877.74 points in four-day trading and only gained in one-day trading just 63.2 points on the first day of the week. Hence the KSE 100 Index total loss resulted into a massive drop of 814.54 points to close at 11,375.09 level. On Monday, the 100 Index gained 63.02 points to close at 12,253.39 level in response to the unexpected decline in markup rate. However, according to experts, the market remained under pressure in a thinly traded session. On Tuesday, the second day of the week and first day of the Ramazan, the stocks were trimmed by 27 points to close at 12,226.33 level while trading volume plunged to a 13-month low. Experts said that the investors, worried by the economic and political concerns, traded just 14.9 million shares and opted to remain on the sidelines, causing some of the leading shares to shed value. Experts said that drop in global markets did not let local institutions become active, however, some activity was seen in the fertiliser stocks on news of improvement in gas supply. On Wednesday, the bourse crashed by 284.61 points after the MQM leader hinted at a lockdown in Karachi. The benchmark index closed at 11,941.72 level, below the 12,000 psychological figure, as freefall in international markets added to the stock market woes. The KSE last saw such a major freefall on May 4, 2011, when ties between Islamabad and Washington hit rock bottom following the death of Bin Laden. The downfall in the equity market continued on Thursday as the bourse dropped another 95 points to end the day trading at 11846.16 level. The nonstop fall reflected the lack of improvement in both, the law and order and weak international markets. Unlike the last day, institutional buying in heavy weights averted a steep fall in prices. On the last day of the week, the market took a massive plunge of four per cent or 471.07 points to close at 11,375 level, eroding Rs125 billion from the market capital mainly due to six per cent plunge in the oil prices. Experts said that the fall of six per cent in international oil prices always leaves behind a long list of financial losses as its rise and fall is closely linked to financial risks. According to experts, Ahsan Mehanti, a director at Arif Habib Investments, said that the Karachi Stock Exchange took one of the deepest plunges of its history on Friday when its 100-share index lost 471 points. He said investors dumped risky assets amid worries about Eurozone debt and the potential for a double-dip recession. He said stocks plunged in a short session of the KSE after global stocks showed a record fall as fears grow over euro-zone sovereign debt. Shares of over 300 companies were traded out of which 225 scrips declined, 16 advanced, while 60 remained unchanged. According to experts, at a time when Pakistan bourse is passing through an extremely low volume phase (US$31m average in July), the global stocks have tumbled amid concerns that US economy is weakening. Most of the investors in Pakistan who have not made money this year (KSE Index flat in 2011) are confused and concerned as to what will happen if local bourses see similar selling by foreigners. Though the corporate earnings in Pakistan will post above average growth, depleting market depth may cause market volatility in case foreigners tried to dump shares to reduce their exposure to frontier and emerging markets. The same trend was observed this morning when local index fell 4% with low volumes. MSCI All country world index has fallen 13% from its May peak of 909.18 pts while U.S. markets crashed more than 4% (Dow Jones) yesterday on widespread worries including the weak job market. The selling in world markets gained momentum as Japanese and European policymakers stepped in with dramatic measures to shore up their financial markets. In Pakistan so far offshore investors have sold on net basis shares worth US$30mn in last 13 sessions. And now the concern is with falling global markets would there be more selling. Amidst this fear the local bourse may remain under pressure in the short run and will move in line with regional markets. Farhan Mehmood, an expert, said that all is not lost as corporate earnings are expected to post 27% earnings growth in 2011, far better than historical trend. This is evident from recent 1H results where fertilizers and few banks posted more than 60% and 25% earnings growth, respectively which will likely to continue in next 6 months. Thanks to higher margins led by rising urea prices and better return on assets. Similarly, the heavy weight oil sector is expected to post earnings growth of 26% mainly led by higher oil prices.

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