Economic indicators show dim performance

ISLAMABAD - Apart from the fiscal deficit, the main four economic indicators showed deteriorated performance in the first five months (July-Nov) of the current financial year against the same period of last year, as all of them remained in negative zone. The fiscal deficit has already surged to 3.3 per cent in the first half (July-December) of 2010-11 against the target of 2.3 per cent for the said period, which is an alarming situation for the government, as the Central Bank chief has already hinted for 6 per cent deficit of the GDP which would be covered by borrowing more than Rs 1000 billion. Meanwhile. the economic indicators including inflation rate, Foreign Direct Investment, trade deficit and Large Scale Manufacturings growth remained on the negative side in July-November period of the current fiscal year over the corresponding period of last year. According to the independent economists, the government would not be able to achieve the revised economic targets keeping in view the so far progress in the ongoing fiscal year of the main economic indicators. The peoples government instead of providing any economic relief to the masses raised the inflation rate to a record level as inflation based on Consumer Price Indicator recorded at 14.4 per cent in July-Nov 2010 against 10.3 per cent in July-Nov 2010. Food inflation based on CPI increased to 18.1 per cent in the first five months of 2010-11 against 10 per cent in the same period of previous year. Meanwhile, the trade balance of the country increased by over 16 percent in the so far period of the ongoing year, as the countrys trade imbalance registered at $6.492 billion which was $5.553 billion last year. On one side, the countrys exports showed growth of 18 per cent, while on the other hand the imports also surged by 17 percent in the first months of 2010-11. The large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector during the first July-September period of the ongoing fiscal year 2010-11 witnessed a negative growth of 2.6 per cent as compared with the same period of last fiscal year. It might be mentioned here that LSM posted a growth of 3.1 percent in the first month of July 2010 while later it starts declining in the next months. Meanwhile, the foreign direct investment (FDI) during July-Nov period of the current fiscal year 2010-11 was recorded at $573 million and the latest figures revealed that FDI witnessed a decline of 22 percent as it was $730 million in the same period of the last financial year 2010-11. However, workers remittances and current account deficit improved in during the first five months of 2010-11. During the first five months of the ongoing fiscal year, remittances recorded a growth of 16 percent, which totalled at $4.428 billion as compared with $3.833 billion in the same period of last fiscal year. Meanwhile current account deficit reduced to $ 544 million in July-Nov 2010 from $ 1822 million in the corresponding period last year.

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