IF you feel positive about something then invariably you can use your positive feelings to extract the optimum result out of a situation.
A study by Harvard Business Review (HBR) in February 2001 showed that top executives routinely make big decisions without relying only on logical analysis.
Instead, they call upon their intuition, but cannot describe the process much more than that.
Authors like Alden Hayashi and Brown present research from leading scientists suggesting that our emotions and feelings might not only be important in our intuitive ability to make good decisions but may actually be essential.
Specifically, one theory contends that our emotions help us filter various options quickly, even if we are not consciously aware of the screening.
Other research suggests that professional judgment can often be reduced to patterns and rules; indeed, truly inspired decisions seem to require an ability to see similar patterns across disparate fields.
A perfect strategy therefore would detect patterns, which others overlook or mistake for random noise.
Does Pakistans Future Economic Outlook also bear any patterns and if yes, then what better way to find out than to read into the intuitions on financial future, which the leading global financial houses have about us and in comparison for our regional neighbors? Following, are some excerpts (averaged out) from 2010 forecast reports compiled by Jar dine Fleming (Asia), AMEX and Standard Chartered, which tend to be self explanatory: * GDP Growth rate in Pakistan is at best likely to be 2.
50%, whereas India is likely to achieve 8.
50%, Bangladesh 7.
00% and China 10.
50%.
* The economic outlook in general for Pakistan appears very weak owing mainly to weak external and domestic demand, whereas, on the other hand for, India: Domestic demand has staged a quick comeback, Gross fixed capital formation has rebounded back to 32-33%, labor-market outlook has improved and looking healthy once again, and household demand is also likely to increase owing to improved credit flow to retail investors; Bangladesh: Has weathered the crisis well and the economy barely slowed.
Policy environment is sound, and structural reform initiatives are well underway that should help to alleviate poverty and secure longer term growth potential; China: Back into double digit growth, a booming infrastructure build-out and the likelihood of its continued backing of its manufacturing sector in order to sustain strong growth in its labor markets and to keep cost of production down within the country.
* The Pak Rupee during the course of 2010 is likely to depreciate in value against the US Dollar by around 8%, whereas, Indian Rupee will appreciate by 8%, Bangladesh Taka is likely to remain unchanged and the Chinese Yuan should also appreciate against the Dollar by about 2%.
* Inflation (CPI) during 2010 in Pakistan will continue to hover around the 14-15% mark, whereas, in India around 4-5%, Bangladesh 5-6% and China 2-3%.
* By focusing on controlling cost of production in particular and cost of doing business in general, India, Bangladesh and China will continue the mode of Export led growth and are likely to post current account surplus figures (as percentage of GDP) of 1%, 2.
50% and 7% respectively, whereas, Pakistan is once again likely to run a deficit of around 5-6%.
* Last but not least, politics and law and order in Pakistan during 2010 will continue to be uncertain, whereas, India, Bangladesh and China will remain stable.
Well, it does not take a rocket scientist to decipher where the world thinks we are heading and more importantly the evolving global perception of doing business in Pakistani markets cum doing business with Pakistani businesses in the coming months.
However, sometimes traits of continuous denial in human nature can easily cloud ones visionary decision-making.
One potential pitfall can be our tendency to see patterns where none exist or more relevant in our case, ignore patterns that glow like a full moon