ISLAMABAD-The Asian Development Bank has forecast further boost in Pakistan’s economic growth.
The ADB Monday predicted that further improvement in energy supply, high investment in infrastructure and improved security environment will push up Pakistan’s GDP growth in 2016 and 2017.
In Pakistan and Bangladesh, initial government estimates of GDP growth in FY2016 (ended June 30, 2016) beat Asian Development Outlook (ADO) forecasts, said a new report of Asian Development Bank (ADB).
In a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook 2016 (ADO 2016) report, released in March 2016, ADB now forecasts 2016 growth for the developing economies at 5.6%, below its previous projection of 5.7%. However for 2017, growth is seen unchanged at 5.7%.
South Asia, meanwhile, is expected to be the fastest growing sub-region, where India’s economy is projected to grow at 7.4%. Bangladesh economy will remain robust on the strength of its garments sector, the report said. The exception was Vietnam where the economy came under pressure from a worsening drought that caused a contraction in the agriculture sector. Besides the slowing pace of earthquake reconstruction has also dampened Nepal’s prospects.
However, regarding Bangladesh, the report said that the recent terror attack in Dhaka could affect investor confidence and undermine growth.
Growth in Asia and the Pacific’s developing economies for 2016 and 2017 will remain solid as firm performances from South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia help offset softness from the US economy, and near-term market shocks from the Brexit vote.”Although the Brexit vote has affected developing Asia’s currency and stock markets, its impact on the real economy in the short term is expected to be small,” ADB’s report said.
“However, in light of the tepid growth prospects in the major industrial economies, policy makers should remain vigilant and be prepared to respond to external shocks to ensure growth in the region remains robust.”
Growth in 2016 and 2017, is led by South Asia, and India in particular, which continues to expand strongly, while the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is on track to meet earlier growth projections.In East Asia, despite muted activity in Hong Kong, China and the Republic of Korea, growth forecasts are unchanged at 5.7% in 2016 and 5.6% in 2017, with the world’s second largest economy, the PRC, on track to meet projected growth of 6.5% in 2016 and 6.3% in 2017.
To support its targets, the Chinese government is expected to continue using fiscal and monetary stimulus measures.In Southeast Asia, growth projections for the subregion in 2016 and 2017 remain unchanged at 4.5% and 4.8%, with solid performances by most economies in the first half of 2016 driven by private consumption.
Continued soft commodity prices and the recession in the Russian Federation have further dampened the growth outlook for Central Asia, with the earlier 2016 forecast of 2.1% trimmed to 1.7%, and 2017 cut to 2.7% from 2.8%.
The slump in revenues from hydrocarbon exports are affecting fiscal consolidation efforts in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, while lower remittances, particularly from the Russian Federation, continue to hurt domestic consumption in the subregion.
In the Pacific, growth for 2016 is expected to moderate to 3.9% in 2016 from 7.1% in 2015, with the Fijian economy reeling from Cyclone Winston. However there are some bright spots with stronger-than-expected tourism receipts aiding the Cook Islands and Samoa, while Vanuatu’s economy is being boosted by the rollout of post-cyclone reconstruction work and other major infrastructure projects.
The report now projects inflation for developing Asia to come in at 2.8% for 2016 and 3.0% for 2017-a 0.3 percentage point rise for each year from the previous forecasts. The rise is due largely to a recovery in oil and food prices.
Oil prices rebounded from early-year lows and food prices rose nearly 9% in June 2016 from the year earlier, marking the fifth consecutive month the index has risen in value.However about the future of the oil prices the report said that ”The Brent crude oil price is forecast to average $43/ barrel in 2016 and $50/ barrel in 2017”.