Following the Saudi-led airstrikes on Houthi militants in Yemen, things are rapidly getting worse in this volatile state of the Arabian Peninsula. Now the threat of a ground incursion is also seriously looming over the Yemen. At present, both Saudi Arabia and Iran are blaming each other for excessively interfering in the internal political affairs of the Yemen by substantially supporting their respective sectarian factions in this country. In fact, this domestic political confrontation among various sectarian groups in Yemen is now tuning into a full-fledged Shia-Sunni conflict in the Middle East. After Syria and Iraq, Yemen seems to be another active theatre for the proxy war between two arch-rivals in the Middle East; Saudi Arabia and Iran. Now, in the absence of any regional and international forum for conflict-resolution, these political developments would cause this region to experience one kind of sectarian Balkanization.
This time, Saudi Arabia and its regional and international coalition partners have somehow chosen to aggressively respond to current political developments in the Yemen. Keeping in mind the political perspective and ground realities in Yemen, the current proactive and aggressive stance taken by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries vis-à-vis Yemen is anything but rational and appropriate. At present, there is a sort of civil war among the various political-cum-sectarian factions in Yemen. This internal confrontation is hardly posing any serious threat to the very existence of any GCC country in this region. Therefore, the present hypersensitivity and excessive anxiety of the GCC countries over the political situation in Yemen is quite inexplicable.
As a matter of fact, significantly adhering to the strategy of pre-emption, the GCC coalition forces are trying to articulate and enforce their national interests in Yemen. These types of pre-emption strikes hardly have any place in international law. Article 4 of the UN charter essentially provides that all member states shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. Under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, it is only UNSC which can decide to take any preventive or coercive measure against any state in any situation involving “threats to the peace, breaches of the peace or acts of aggression.” Strangely, in the absence of any UN mandate or authorization, this Saudi-led coalition has readily adopted the so-called Bush Doctrine to achieve the desired political objectives in Yemen.
Under its so-called GCC initiative, Saudi Arabia has been trying to maintain its influence in Yemen through some pro-Saudi political figures and various tribal leaders for some time. It is believed that President Ali Abdullah Saleh was made to step down in favour of Vice President Mansur Hadi after the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ in Yemen in 2011 under this very initiative. Later, Mansur Hadi was elected as the President of Yemen in the 2012 presidential election which is also often referred to as a ‘one man show’. Following the political impasse in Yemen, President Hadi and his cabinet resigned in January this year. However, after one month, he rescinded his resignation and unilaterally declared his government in Aden following the glorious revolution made by the Houthis. The GCC and some other countries have shifted their embassies from Sana’a to Aden. Now, it is being feared that all these developments may result in the bifurcation of Yemen which would ultimately push this country towards Balkanization.
In the face of rising Arab nationalism in the Middle East, ‘Pan Islamism’ has significantly been eclipsed by ‘Pan Arabism,’ making the Arab League more active and vocal in the political and economic affairs of the countries in the Middle East. Now, Saudi Arabia and its satellite Gulf States have resorted to protect their dynastic monarchies and autocratic regimes by establishing organizations like GCC and Peninsula Shield Force. Consequently, now we can hardly see any role of the OIC or even the Arab League in the Middle East. This self-proclaimed leader of the so-called Muslim Ummah is equally responsible for the current ideological polarization and sectarian divide in the Muslim World.
Over a certain period of time, there has been a significant paradigm shift in the pattern of Arab-Israeli relations in the Middle East. The previous Arab versus Israel model has been replaced by another Arab-plus-Israel versus Iran model in this region. Saudi Arabia’s antagonism for Iran is no longer a secret. According to some documents released by WikiLeaks in 2010, the Saudi King has repeatedly urged the US to attack Iran to destroy its nuclear capacity. Similarly, it is also known for its extensive diplomatic manoeuvring to initiate multilateral military offensives to topple the Iran-backed Assad regime in Syria last year. Presently, most Arab countries enjoy cordial and comfortable relations with Israel. Iran is the only significant country in the Middle East which has not yet normalized its relations with Israel. It is quite a paradoxical situation that GCC countries and Israel considered Iran their foremost enemy in the Middle East.
Now, instead of the blatant use of military force, a peaceful settlement of the current Yemen crisis must be sought through diplomatic means. For this purpose, the UN must actively play its institutional role in de-escalating the political confrontation and unrest in Yemen by forcing various antagonistic factions to exercise maximum restraint. Besides this, major powers and important Muslim countries have also an important role to play in Yemen. GCC coalition forces should not be allowed to wreak havoc with the peace and stability of this already-troubled part of the world. These kinds of irresponsible actions would trigger a violent Shia-Sunni confrontation in the entire Muslim World.
Pakistan should also refrain from becoming an active part of this intra-Arab conflict. It must not internalize an external conflict, as it has been doing so in the past. Presently, there is no such potential threat to holy places in Saudi Arabia which may justify its military presence in Saudi Arabia. Pakistan can hardly afford to involve itself in a similar conflict as it has already been torn by the bloody wave of sectarian strife. Similarly, the already-strained Pak-Iran relations would further deteriorate if Pakistan takes any side in this conflict at this stage. In view of current geo-strategic perspective of the religion, Pakistan direly needs to establish close relations with this immediate neighbor. Instead of becoming a part of this ‘Greater Middle East folly’, Pakistan must play its positive role to diffuse this confrontation peacefully and diplomatically. Indeed, discretion should be the better part of valour.