John Adams says democracy never lasts long; it soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. And that there never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. I do not believe him. Giving Adams his due, fatal attacks on democracy would not have been possible without the suicidal tendencies of democratic regimes themselves. Those in Pakistan who have lived in the 1960s, 70s and 80s would know how difficult the struggle for democracy has been.
I know no other people who have so passionately fought for their rights, but when the time came, they were tamed into accepting dictatorial regimes for full, uninterrupted decades. Our passion for democracy aside, our patience for dictatorial regimes is exemplary. When we run out of patience, we throw them out and bring civilians into office with epic intolerance of their incompetency and errors in judgment.
In less than a year, some from within the civvies would happily serve the ‘Punj-mili-tablishment’. They will stand up for one of their rights, create enough mayhem on the streets to give meat to the uniformed saviors of the Islamic Republic to intervene and rule for ten years. The methods of assault and of usurping power have changed so significantly that it is now difficult to even distinguish if democracy is being attacked or just being exercised a bit more rigorously.
The events of the last couple of months indicate how the methodology and mechanism of praetorian democracy is shaping up to fit itself in the modern demands of ‘democracy’ and ‘freedom’ in today’s globalized world. Today, an army brigade can’t just pull off its tanks, have a fun drive down Islamabad’s streets, break into the Parliament building, the Prime Minister’s residence and the building of the state owned television, and simply declare they are now the boss. There has to be public support for the act even if the act has to be performed in this detail.
To get public support, the incumbent regime has to be de-legitimized in the public eye and the street has to be filled, demanding a role by the army. Television being the new street now, has been doing its bit as far as the latter is concerned. For the former, civvies are needed who can fill the voluble space with a narrative that resonates with the pulse of people. It happened in the 1970s. It happened time and again during the 1990s and very recently from 2008 to 2013. Surprisingly, democracy survived these tactics in its last tenure. It completed its constitutionally mandated tenure, and that became its trap. The more time you spend in office, the more delegitimized you will get.
It is not very difficult to play a bit with the economy, especially when the environment is not friendly to foreign and internal investment. Not an ‘iron hand’, but just a strong hidden arm is enough to tweak the irritants (major ‘irritants’ here, are people’s development and strength of economy) a bit and there you can excellently brew public unrest and displeasure for the incumbent. Watch the civvies closely and you will soon find the weak links where a slight push would bring it all down. Remember Adam’s suicidal democracy?
Taking office has never been an end for the boys. They have been eyeing office for occupying power. Why take the pain of being in office when you can enjoy power without doing much? We saw it in the last five years when the PPP happily gave off their authority to decide on policy in lieu of staying in office. It did give some necessary oxygen to the dying democratic polity, but took out the life-force from it by appearing to be doing nothing; just fire fighting.
It somehow put the PPP under the radar for the time being, by removing its sting so it could not bite for the next few years. Public memory is short but not short enough to forget the governance inertia of the post-Musharraf years. Now it was PMLN’s turn to be dealt with. The method employed was simple and brilliant. Bring them into office, delegitimize them, and throw them away for life. The provincial distribution of office was also done carefully. Let each party enjoy a full mandate in pockets of their influence, see them misgovern and let the people throw them away.
Everyone fell prey to this plan. Every party was given electoral ‘support’ in selective polling stations with parallel media leaks so the entire exercise could be rendered useless and fraudulent. A ‘pertinent’ time was to be decided based on the regime’s suicidal attempts. Nawaz being no Zardari gave in rather easily. When they make a plan, it’s not a one-size-fits-all. They do it custom-made for every actor. Zardari took them by surprise on many occasions while Nawaz and Imran never disappoint them.
The hammer struck Achilles’ heel when the PMLN chose sides in April this year subsequent to their Musharraf-trial faux pas. The boys don’t forgive, nor do they forget. Enter the notorious London Plan. If that was the plan, it was busted rather soon. The boys never start a thing without a Plan B. Where is that now? It is in the streets and on TV. Keep jolting people’s emotions using their genuine concerns of injustice and violations of their rights, as proxies.
Plan B is to keep the mayhem alive till it reaches the point of no return. On that point too, they won’t come in with their guns. This is 2014, and it demands style. They will wield guns and instead of breaking into the building, they pretend to be protecting the Parliament while allowing the turmoil to reach boiling point. They will gladly tweet away the Prime Minister’s credibility by refuting him publicly, but will not raise their eyebrows when retired Generals, random media persons and revolutionary leaders allude to the support given by Rawalpindi. Smart!
So when is Plan B ending, and how? War of nerves that it is, it would seek the regime to blink first. Even if the prime minister’s resignation is not in the offing now, it will have to come a month or two later. Or may be three or four. But that’s how it is going to end. It is just a tragedy away. It’s just another scandal away. A couple of high profile strategic leaks to the media, and it is over.
There are however, a few lessons for all parties involved. When the PMLN got tired of being used, it turned its back at the hands that fed them for so long. That became the beginning of their end. PPP, after losing their leaders and office repeatedly, decided to get tamed. MQM already knows this too well; hence its ambivalent stance on the current situation.
It’s now PTI’s turn to learn. Both PMLN and PPP had to unfurl the flag of the Kashmir issue despite knowing the fact that popular constituency for it is shrinking in Pakistan. They knew who they were talking to. Not the people, not their workers. They were talking to ultimate power-holders. Once PTI decides to talk on its own terms, it will either become PMLN or PPP. And I’m not talking in terms of their corruption here. It’s not about corruption. It’s about keeping power where it belongs.
n The writer is an Islamabad based freelance columnist.