The Struggling State

The two bombs that tore through a crowd of protestors on Saturday in Kabul are among the most deadly attacks since the U.S.-led campaign to oust the Taliban in 2001. Since that year, there has been close to 15 years of U.S presence in Afghanistan, and almost a constant military effort against militant groups – yet such events can still happen with devastating effect.

This attack wasn’t carried out by the Taliban however – in fact they denounced the attack as a “plot to ignite civil war’ – it was carried out by Islamic State (IS). The hardline Sunni group’s modus operandi is obvious here. Where the Taliban predominately target security forces, IS picked out a rally of unarmed protestors – killing at least 80 people and wounding more than 230, mostly from the Shia, Persian-speaking, Hazara minority. The group has not only managed to establish a presence in eastern Afghan districts such as Nangarhar – far from its Middle Eastern strongholds – it now feels confident enough to launch large scale attacks against civilians in the country’s capital.

All of this does not bode well for the Afghani government. It is already struggling to defend against the Taliban’s summer offensive, while several areas of the country are virtually beyond government control. The addition of Islamic State in to this mix will be great cause of concern for the embattled Ashraf Ghani.

Things have not gone well for the Afghan president; he was unable to deliver a diplomatic solution to the Taliban problem nor a military one, and the relationship with Pakistan has deteriorated to the point of open accusations and border skirmishes. Furthermore, large tracts of land remain unconnected to power and the economic outlook of the country remains poor – despite the billions of dollars poured into the country by foreign states. Perhaps the most important fact being that to this day, the government has been unable to protect its people.

Saturday’s attack may be the most senseless and deadly act of violence in recent years but bombings such as this have become the norm for the average Afghan.

It is still not a failed state the way Iraq or Syria are at the moment – it still exerts some influence – but the tide of events does not seem to be on Afghanistan’s side. Now is the time for the international community to rethink and redouble its Afghan efforts, when there is still some semblance of stability.

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