KABUL - The Afghan government controls less than 60 percent of the country, a US watchdog agency reported on Wednesday, after security forces retreated from many strongholds last year.

Afghan soldiers and police, with the aid of thousands of foreign military advisers, are struggling to hold off a resurgent insurgency led by the Taliban, as well as other groups like Islamic State.

As of November, the government could only claim to control or influence 57 percent of Afghanistan’s 407 districts, according to US military estimates released by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), in a quarterly report to the US Congress. That represents a 15 percent decrease in territory held compared with the same time in 2015, the agency said in a report.

“SIGAR’s analysis of the most recent data provided by US forces in Afghanistan suggests that the security situation in Afghanistan has not improved this quarter,” it said. “The numbers of the Afghan security forces are decreasing, while both casualties and the number of districts under insurgent control or influence are increasing.” More than 10 percent of districts are under insurgent control or influence, while 33 percent are contested, according to the report.

Some of the most contested provinces include Uruzgan, with five of six districts under insurgent control or influence, and Helmand, with eight of its 14 districts under insurgent control or influence.

US military officials say much of the loss of territory reflects a change in strategy, with Afghan forces abandoning many checkpoints and bases in order to consolidate and focus on the most threatened areas.

Insurgents tried at least eight times to capture provincial capitals, although each assault was eventually beaten off.

According to US military estimates, the number of Afghans living under insurgent control or influence decreased slightly in recent months to about 2.5 million people. But nearly a third of the country, or 9.2 million people, live in areas that are contested, according to SIGAR, leading to some of the highest civilian casualty rates the United Nations has ever recorded in Afghanistan.

Afghan security forces also sustained heavy casualties, with at least 6,785 soldiers and police killed in the first 10 months of last year, with 11,777 wounded, SIGAR reported. Casualty figures are rarely released by the Afghan government, while difficulties in confirming and tracking troop numbers make any figures subject to wide variation.

SIGAR reported some progress in combating corruption, which has plagued both Afghan military and political institutions.  “We are very concerned,” said General Charles Cleveland, spokesman for NATO forces in Afghanistan.

He blamed “poor leadership” for the casualties as well as corruption, though he noted many officials have been removed at all levels.

“Afghan forces continue to be incredibly resilient and they made success in achieving their main goals, such as securing the populated areas,” he added, saying there had been progress but it would take years.

Their first year was something of a disaster, the nadir coming when the regional capital Kunduz in northern Afghanistan was briefly captured by the Taliban.

US and NATO officials had been hoping the Afghans would fare better in 2016, but clearly the security situation remains perilous. The Pentagon, however, insists the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) are improving and points to successful efforts to repel Taliban attacks on regional capitals.

Most of the fatalities among the ANDSF came from “direct-fire” assaults, meaning local troops were directly attacked by the Taliban and other insurgent groups, instead of dying in roadside bomb and mine blasts.

In addition to the high death rate in the ANDSF, the report found that the number of Afghan districts under insurgent control or influence is increasing.

US Forces Afghanistan reported that 57.2 percent of the country’s 407 districts were under Afghan government control or influence as of November 15, the report states. That marks a drop from the 63.4 percent reported in late August, and a nearly 15-point decline since November 2015.

A Western observer who has lived in Afghanistan for years told AFP that the provinces under Taliban control could ultimately split from those held by the Kabul government. “Everybody here thinks this country will collapse in a matter of two or three years,” he said.

The report also found civilian casualties remain high.

According to a UN body, there were 8,397 conflict-related civilian casualties between January 1 and September 30, a slight drop compared to the same period in 2015.

The report also cites an Asia Foundation survey last year that found only 29.3 percent of respondents nationwide felt their country was moving in the right direction, down from 36.7 percent in 2015.

“This represents the lowest level of optimism recorded since the survey began in 2004,” the SIGAR report notes. The Taliban have been especially active in Helmand province - a global center for opium production, which is on the rise. And Afghanistan has long grappled with government corruption and embezzlement.

 

Reuters/AFP