WASHINGTON  - Secretary of State John Kerry has said that the US and Afghan governments have agreed on terms for a security arrangement that could clear the way for a long-term US military presence in Afghanistan.
The deal, which will now be presented for approval by a Loya Jirga, came after days of brinkmanship by Afghan officials and two direct calls from Kerry to President Hamid Karzai, including one on Wednesday before the announcement.
The council could raise objections that might delay or even prevent a signing. “We have agreed on the language that would be submitted to a loya jirga, but they have to pass it,” Kerry said.
Just the day before, a senior aide to Karzai had said the Afghan leader would not approve an agreement unless President Barack Obama sent a letter acknowledging American military mistakes during the 12-year war. But on Wednesday, Kerry emphatically insisted that a deal was reached with no American apology forthcoming. The military coalition’s mission will wind down at the end of 2014, when most US forces are supposed to leave. The security agreement is designed to provide a legal framework for an American presence after that.
The United States has said a post-2014 mission would include advisers for Afghanistan’s young military and a counterterrorism force that would be authorized to target al-Qaeda and its affiliates. “There is no combat role for United States forces,” Kerry said of a follow-on force.
The agreement does not specify the size of the force that would remain after 2014.
Commanders had initially recommended a follow-on force of about 13,600 US troops, though the final number approved by the White House may be less than that. Allied nations will also contribute forces.
There are 60,000 US troops in Afghanistan, down from a peak of about 100,000. At the heart of the bilateral security agreement is a provision that gives the US military legal jurisdiction over its forces, a key requirement for the United States. Without such an agreement, US troops could be arrested and tried in Afghan courts. Terms of the agreement have been under negotiation for about a year.
Analysts say there is broad support in Afghanistan for a long-term US troop commitment. “The chances are excellent that an agreement will be reached,” said Marc Chretien, a former political adviser to coalition forces in Afghanistan.
“The way this White House and the palace in Kabul interact there is no predicting” the outcome, said Michael O’Hanlon, an analyst at Brookings Institution.
The document will go before a council made up of about 3,000 delegates from around the country that represent Afghanistan’s diverse ethnic groups and tribes. “It’s very important for President Karzai to know that the issues that he’s raised with us for many years have been properly addressed, and it’s very important for us to know that issues we have raised with him for a number of years are properly addressed,” Kerry said.
Kerry said an apology for US actions was never considered as he and Karzai discussed the agreement. “President Karzai didn’t ask for an apology,” Kerry said. “There was no discussion of an apology.”