Recent elections in Pakistan can be viewed in the backdrop of international and domestic factors, interests and strategic environment. Pakistan, like most other countries of the world, is factually a ‘relatively’ sovereign state. Not resisting drones can be understood to be its state policy. A country that is heavily under debt, and is forced to get loans to repay its loans, and accepts drone attacks obliquely, cannot be termed as completely sovereign. Such a country accepts foreign interference for vital decision making as a public policy.
One does not need to go back much in history to observe as to how Liaqat Ali Khan, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Ziaul Haq and Benazir Bhutto were assassinated (probably Nawaz Sharif also had a close call). These were also our national leaders and they were not killed due to domestic feuds. Their deaths had this commonality that allegedly, foreign powers were involved and as such inquiries could not be made public. For the sake of stability of the country, there is a need to examine the pattern of ‘removing’ leaders, irrespective of their political merit, draw lessons from such incidents.
If Afghanistan and Pakistan are to be destabilized, there are several ways to accomplish this. The presently working plan is to roll down insurgency from the line of Hindu Kush Range that horizontally divides Afghanistan into Pushtoon and non Pashtoon areas. This plan has multiple advantages, as even after NATO departs, the seeds of enmity and revenge between Afghanistan, the Tribal Areas and Pakistan will keep germinating and make a pro Pakistan community into an anti Pakistan community.
Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and Baluchistan have an interesting commonality for foreign interests both are well populated by Shias, and both have foreigners intruding into these regions. GB provides access to China to ports, like Afghanistan can provide such access to Russia.
It can be understood that such regions that provide economic or military accesses can never remain peaceful and will have to be sabotaged. In addition, Baluchistan also contains the Hazaras who are migrants from Bamian province of Afghanistan, which is part of anti-Taliban alliance.
US is already seen waging a war against Shias all over the world, as currently in Syria. Therefore this geographic and religious reality will never allow peace and development to these unfortunate regions of Pakistan, unless a prolific Pakistani leadership is ready to bear the consequences as well as face the truth of the nature of its enemy!
The election results have reminded us that due to our geography, societal intolerance, and accordingly, increased foreign interference, Pakistan will remain in turmoil in the short term unless foreign interference is reduced. Only a prudent government that is able to cruise through these predictable foreign interests has any chances to bring some relief to the people.
MUHAMMAD IRFAN (BRIG-RETD),
Lahore, September 10.