Contest to determine future political course

LAHORE - Since the victory of PPP hopeful Asif Zardari in today's presidential election is a foregone conclusion now, the only interest left in the contest is the suspense as to the number of votes each candidate would secure at the end of the day. With the PPP and the PML-N still at daggers drawn after latter's decision to quit the coalition and then to field its own presidential candidate, the analysts say that today's poll results would be reflective of each parties' strength, especially in the National Assembly, where they believe, the real battle is going to be fought after the presidential election. In this context, the number game has become very important for all stakeholders, perhaps less for today's presidential election, but more so in the post-election scenario when country is likely to witness a political upheaval if the PML-N did not re-join the federal cabinet. For the PML-N and the PML-Q, the presidential election is important for the reason that they would come to know of their real strength in both houses of the parliament and the provincial assemblies. So, in today's contest, their entire focus would be to keep their vote bank in president's electoral college intact as far as possible, since it is going to be a secret ballot. The election results would show the extent of damage, if any, done to the two parties by the PPP, which claims that its candidate would get at least 450 votes out of total 702. In the National Assembly, the combined strength of the PPP and its allied parties, which include the MQM, ANP, JUI-F, PML-F, PPP-S and the independents, stands at 193, whereas in the Senate the number is 50. This makes 243 votes for PPP candidate in the National Assembly and the Senate. In the four provincial assemblies, the PPP and its allies are also in commanding position with 170 votes, which makes the total count in favour of Zardari at 413. In addition to this number, the PPP is also expecting at least 25 additional votes that would be coming from PML-Q MNAs who have reportedly made commitment with PM Gilani to vote in favour of PPP candidate in their personal capacity. The PML-N and the PML-Q, on the other hand, have 130 and 133 votes respectively in the entire electoral college. The smaller parties mostly having their votes in Balochistan, have a combined strength of 21 votes, and they are either voting for PML-N or PML-Q candidate. So the total count in favour of the two parties is not more than 284. Political pandits have predicted that PML-Q vote would get divided into three parts, as some of its votes would go the PPP, few to the PML-N, while the rest would be polled in favour of Mushahid Hussain Syed. Meanwhile, it is also significant to note that a winning candidate would not be required to get majority vote, which is 352 in an electoral college consisting of 702 votes, but the one getting higher votes compared to his rivals would be declared successful.

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