Situation in Pakistan tenuous: US

WASHINGTON - Government corruption and the rise in the Taliban's influence are leading Afghanistan in a "downward spiral", a classified US intelligence report says. The report casts doubt on the ability of the Afghan government to counter the resurgent Taliban, officials familiar with the document told The New York Times on Thursday. The report is a nearly completed version of a National Intelligence Estimate, scheduled to be finished after the Nov 4 elections, the Times reported Thursday. US officials said intelligence agencies also were developing an assessment on Pakistan, also available after next month's election. Because of the bleak assessment, the White House has begun a review of Afghanistan policy, to be completed in the next few weeks, The Washington Post reported. The Afghanistan report cited gains in building the country's national army, officials said. However, it outlined the destabilising impact of the booming heroin trade, concern that Afghan President Hamid Karzai can't or won't stem government corruption as well as cross-border attacks by militants in Pakistan's tribal areas. White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe declined to comment on the report, but said, "Everyone understands that the current situation in Afghanistan is a tough one. That's why the president ordered additional troops there. That's why we're increasing the size of the Afghanistan army." Agencies add: "As the US presidential election approaches, senior officials familiar with a draft NIE report have expressed worry that the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan is so tenuous that it may fall apart while a new set of US policymakers settles in," the Washington Post said. According to the Post, officials described the Pakistan-based network, which the Pentagon calls "the syndicate", as a loose alliance of three elements. Kashmiri freedom fighters, constrained by recent agreements between Pakistan and India, have "leaned over" to assist the Pakistani Taliban, one official alleged. They claimed the Afghan Taliban are based in Pakistan but focused on Afghanistan, as are the forces led by warlords Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son Siraj, and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, among others. Traditional tribal groups in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) are a third element, they added. Those groups are said to be focused primarily on keeping the Pakistani Army and government out of their areas, and assisting the Afghan-oriented parts of the network, officials said. According to the Post, Al-Qaeda, composed largely of Arabs and, increasingly, Uzbeks, Chechens and other Central Asians, is described by the officials as sitting atop the structure, providing money and training to the others in exchange for sanctuary. "They are oriented to just keeping the Pakistani military and government out of their areas," the intelligence official said. "They help the groups who are interested in Afghanistan." Intelligence officials said that cooperation among the militant groups was bolstered by the hands-off attitude Pakistan's new civilian coalition government initially adopted towards the Fata last spring. According to the Post authorisation for commando raids coincided with stepped-up attacks by unmanned Predator aircraft flown across the border from Afghanistan. The administration concluded that the ground raids were legal under the self-defence provisions of the UN charter, an interpretation that a UN official said was questionable. According to The Washington Post, "analysts have concluded that reconstituted elements of Al-Qaeda and the resurgent Taliban are collaborating with an expanding network of militant groups, making the counterinsurgency war infinitely more complicated."

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