Concern over Indian soldiers deployment in Afghanistan

WASHINGTON - A growing al-Qaeda -backed insurgency, combined with the Pakistani army's reluctance to launch an all-out crackdown, political infighting and energy and food shortages are plunging Pakistan deeper into turmoil and violence, according to a media report, citing a soon-to-be completed US intelligence assessment. A US official who participated in drafting the top secret National Intelligence Estimate said it portrays the situation in Pakistan as "very bad," according to the report published in McClatchy Newspapers, the third largest newspaper chain. Another official called the draft "very bleak," and said it describes Pakistan as being "on the edge." The first official summarised the estimate's conclusions about the state of Pakistan as: "no money, no energy, no government." There has been no comment on the report from the White House. Six US officials who helped draft or are aware of the document's findings confirmed them to McClatchy on the condition of anonymity because NIEs are top secret and are restricted to the president, senior officials and members of Congress were cited as saying. An NIE's conclusions reflect the consensus of all 16 US intelligence agencies. The NIE on Pakistan, along with others being prepared on Afghanistan and Iraq, will underpin a "strategic assessment" of the situation that Army Gen David Petraeus, who's about to take command of all US forces in the region, has requested. The aim of the assessment - seven years after the US sent troops into Afghanistan - is to determine whether a US presence in the region can be effective and if so what US strategy should be. The findings also are intended to support the Bush administration's effort to recommend the resources the next president will need for Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan at a time the economic crisis is straining the treasury and inflating the federal budget deficit, the report said. The Afghanistan estimate warns that additional American troops are urgently needed there and that extremists who enjoy safe haven in Pakistan pose a growing threat to the US-backed government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai. The Iraq NIE is more cautious about the prospects for stability there than the Bush administration and either John McCain or Barack Obama - the presidential hopefuls " have been, and it raises serious questions about whether the US will be able to redeploy a significant number of troops from Iraq to Afghanistan anytime soon. About Pakistan, the report said, NIE is "relatively sanguine" about the prospects of a Pakistani nuclear weapon, materials or knowledge falling into the hands of terrorists, one official was quoted as saying. The estimate says that the insurgency based in the Federally Administered Tribal Area bordering Afghanistan is intensifying. However, according to the officials, the draft also finds that the Pakistani military is reluctant to launch an all-out campaign against the militants in part because of popular opposition to continuing the cooperation with the US that began under former President Pervez Musharraf.

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