RAIPUR - A crushing defeat to Northern Knights has left Lahore Lions at third on the 2014 Champions League Twenty20 qualifiers points table, meaning that they must beat Southern Express by a hefty margin on Tuesday and then hope that Mumbai Indians lose to Northern Knights in the second match of the day. Lose, and M Hafeez’s Lions will be on their way home. No team from Pakistan has ever progressed past the qualifying stage of the CLT20, and Lions should be desperate to buck that disappointing trend.
Qualification Scenarios: The task seems complicated but both teams still have a chance of making it through to the main round. For Lahore Lions, the equation is pretty simple. A win will help them finish with 8 points. They will be through if Mumbai Indians lose their final match against the Knights but if Mumbai does win, we will have a scenario where three teams will be locked on 8 points each, bringing the net run-rate into play.
On the other hand, the equation is a lot tougher for the team from Sri Lanka. They will have to win against Lahore Lions, make sure that their net-run-rate is above Lahore and Mumbai, and then hope for the Knights to beat Mumbai. In that eventuality, three teams will be locked together with 4 points each.
Lahore Lions’ scenarios: If Lahore Lions beat Southern Express and Mumbai Indians lose to Northern Knights, Knights and Lions go through.
If Mumbai Indians and Lahore Lions win their matches, three teams will be on two wins each, meaning it comes down to net run rate among Knights, Lions and Mumbai Indians. In this scenario, Knights (unless they are smashed by Mumbai Indians) and Mumbai have the advantage, since their net run rates are far superior to Lions’. Lions are at a further disadvantage: they play before Mumbai Indians on Tuesday, meaning they will not know what the exact equation.
If Lahore Lions lose to Southern Express and Mumbai Indians beat Northern Knights, Mumbai Indians and Knights go through without net run rate coming into the equation.
Northern Knights’ scenarios: If Northern Knights win their last match, against Mumbai Indians, they are through to the tournament proper having won all their qualifiers. If Northern Knights lose their final match, they need Southern Express to beat Lahore Lions for clear passage into the next round. If Lions win, though, then it comes down to net run rate among Knights, Lions and Mumbai Indians. Still, Knights will have a big advantage (since their net run rate of +2.684 going into the final round is far superior to Mumbai Indians’ +0.498 and Lahore Lions -1.496). Knights have the added advantage of playing after Lions on Tuesday, so they will know exactly what they need to do.
Mumbai Indians’ scenarios: If Mumbai Indians win their final match, against Northern Knights, they will be hoping for Southern Express to beat Lahore Lions - that would mean they go through to the tournament proper without net run rate coming into the equation.
However, if Lions also win, then net run rate will come into it. Mumbai Indians currently enjoy the advantage of a far superior net run rate going into the final round (+0.498 to Lions’ -1.496, which will be further boosted should they beat Knights). Also, Mumbai Indians hold the advantage of playing the later game on Tuesday, meaning they begin their game already knowing the qualification equation.
If Mumbai Indians lose their final match, to Northern Knights, they need Southern Express to beat Lahore Lions. In this scenario, Mumbai Indians cannot afford to lose their match very badly against Knights, or they may be in danger of their net run rate (+0.498, before the game) slipping below Southern Express’ (-1.670, before the game). Given the massive difference in net run rate, though, this is highly unlikely.
Southern Express’ scenarios: If Southern Express lose to Lahore Lions, they will go out of the tournament without having won a match.
If Southern Express win, to stand any chance of progressing, they’ll need Mumbai Indians to lose to Northern Knights by a huge margin, even while beating Lions by a huge margin themselves. They will not have the cushion of knowing the equation before they play, though, as their match will be played before Mumbai Indians’.