TTP moves HQ to Orakzai

ISLAMABAD Hafiz Gul Bahadur, a powerful North Waziristan commander, has offered complete support of his clan to Pakistan Army. A source on condition of anonymity told TheNation from Miranshah that, Hafiz Gul Bahadur had warned Hakimullah Mehsud and other foreign militants, based in different parts of the North Waziristan and involved in anti-Pakistan activities, to leave the Agency. Sources said that after this warning Hakimullah Mehsud shifted his network from North Waziristan to Orakzai Agency whereas Hafiz Gul Bahadur ordered men of his clan not to attack security forces under any circumstances. This is being considered an important success of the security forces. Hakimullah Mehsud, TTP leader, has decided to abolish his set-up from North Waziristan. There are clear indications that Hakimullah Mehsud has been shifted to Orakzai Agency. Talks were continuing for the last several months between Gul Bahadur and tribal elders of North Waziristan and several jirgas were also held with the focus on the point that people from Pakistan should not fight with Pakistan Army which was engaged in fight against terrorists. The Pakistan Army has been conducting a significant military operation in Waziristan since early June. The stated goal of this operation is to kill or, at least, significantly diminish the power of Hakimullah Mehsud, the leader of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the most wanted man in Pakistan. Mehsuds forces threaten stability of the Pakistani government, which blames Mehsud for the deaths of 1,200 people in the last two years. He also threatens to expand, or at the very least continue, Waziristans significance as a staging ground for attacks abroad, whether by Taliban insurgents against coalition forces in Afghanistan or by Al-Qaeda members against targets worldwide. To attack or isolate Mehsud from the North, the Pakistani military must cross through North Waziristan, an area controlled by Taliban leader Hafiz Gul Bahadur. Bahadur could hinder the Pakistan Armys campaign against Mehsud by preventing or seriously impeding the movement of Pakistani forces through his region. Since late June, he has demonstrated on a limited scale his ability to disrupt Pakistani operations in the region, kidnapping at least ten Pakistani soldiers on July 31 (whom he released two days later) and claiming responsibility for a suicide bombing the first time Bahadur has claimed responsibility for such an attack on July 28. Bahadur has cooperated with both the Pakistani government and Beitullah Mehsud in the past, but he has never made permanent alliances with either. On June 29, Bahadurs forces attacked Pakistani troops in North Waziristan, which started the recent fight between his forces and those of the government. This attack broke an on-again, off-again peace deal Bahadur had maintained with the Pakistani government since September 2006. Bahadur said he attacked Pakistani forces because of continued American drone strikes and increasing Pakistani military operations in and near his territory, which he claimed violated the 2006 agreements terms. Bahadur repeated this message through his spokesman after the July 28 suicide bombing. Bahadur has protected his powerbase by engaging in limited violence in response to American drone strikes, Pakistani military operations, or encroachment by certain groups of foreign fighters. Yet he has never launched an unrestricted war against the Pakistani government, Beitullah Mehsud, or other elements in North Waziristan, including foreign fighters who have occasionally crossed him. It appears that maintenance of his sphere of influence motivates Bahadur more than any other factor. Unrestrained attacks on the security forces or other power brokers in his area could entail risk above the level Bahadur seems willing to accept, effectively limiting his potential use of force. His current fight with the Pakistan Army does not seem to be a life-or-death struggle, but is more like a series of negotiations through violence with attacks and threats of attacks as bargaining chips. Bahadur attacks to limit or direct Pakistan military operations, and the Pakistan military responds to ensure its continued freedom of movement through his area, but neither side seeks open conflict with the other. As a result, neither a true peace agreement nor a complete defeat of Bahadur seems likely any time soon, and Bahadurs limited raids are likely to trouble Pakistani operations in Waziristan for their duration. Little information is available on Bahadurs early years. He comes from Madda Khel, North Waziristan, a town close to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Estimates of his age vary widely, from early thirties to late forties. He received his education at a Deobandi Madrissa and probably participated in the Afghan civil war from 1992 to 1996, during which the Taliban, founded in 1994, began to seize control of Afghanistan. His self-designation as a Hafiz, or one who has memorised the entire Holy Quran, suggests that his religious education plays an important role in his thinking. Bahadur first received media attention in 2000 when he was playing an active role as a North Waziristan leader of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), a major religious party which ruled the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province during 2001-2008. He received still more attention in the month before the 9/11 attacks when he threatened to attack the monitors the United Nations had planned to deploy on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border to halt the flow of weapons to the Afghan Taliban. Bahadur vehemently opposed the deployment of such monitors, which would have diminished the ability of Pakistani Pashtuns to support the Afghan Taliban fighting the Northern Alliance. In conjunction with other JUI leaders and in his role as the head of the JUIs student wing, the Jamiat-Tulaba-i-Islam, Bahadur recruited a lashkar, or militia, of as many as 4,000 volunteers to oppose the monitors, who were never deployed, perhaps, due to disruption created by the 9/11 attacks. Bahadurs ability to combine political acumen and charisma with local tribes gave him a strong foundation for acquiring power. Bahadur is one of the leaders of the Utmanzai Wazir tribe, who resides primarily in North Waziristan. Reports suggest that Utmanzai Wazirs have historically exhibited more unity than other tribes, perhaps providing Bahadur with a relatively stable base. Gul Bahadurs decision to side with Pakistan Army has been acknowledged by famous Global Intelligence and Forecast Organisation STRATFOR. His alliance with Pakistan Army sends a strong signal to US-led NATO Alliance, Not to press hard on Pakistan military to launch its operation in North Waziristan.