The latest? To ease tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan has once again advocated for the normalization of relations with India but not before outlining its oft-repeated conditions including ‘a just and peaceful resolution of the long-standing Jammu and Kashmir dispute’. Seeking ‘good-neighborly relations with India on the basis of mutual respect and sovereign equality’ is nothing more than a formality or perhaps a ‘diplomatic need’ Pakistan feels obliged to meet. To pointlessly expect India to take a ‘collective action to address pressing challenges rather than perpetuating a cycle of hostility’ is indeed an exercise in futility – and Islamabad knows it.
First, the basics. How is India relevant to Pakistan? Can India assist in addressing Pakistan’s grave economic issues in any possible way? Can India help in improving Pakistan’s human development indices, unemployment, and illiteracy? Can India help Pakistan in getting rid of IPPs? Can India assist in attracting FDIs for the SIFC? Will there be a joint India-Pakistan Commission to eradicate poverty, extremism, and terrorism from the region? Will India convince the US to let the Pak-Iran gas pipeline project succeed?
By any stretch of the imagination, will India accept that in 1947, the other independent and sovereign country that came into being was Pakistan? Can India exclude Pakistan from its philosophically inspired dream of Akhand Bharat? Can India accept Sino-Pak strategic relations as a fact? Will India support Pakistan in establishing EPZs for CPEC? More importantly, can India reverse its decisions of Aug 2019 and request the UN Security Council to hold a free and fair plebiscite for the people of Kashmir to decide their future? Will India help Pakistan in becoming a member of BRICS + so that travelling between Pakistan and India could be visa-free?
The quest continues. Will India ever agree to a nuclear-free South Asia? Will India help Pakistan in signing a nuclear deal with the US to enjoy what it is enjoying through the Indo-US nuclear deal? Does Pakistan expect any scientific and technological support from India? Will India ever wish to see a technologically advanced Pakistan? Will India and Pakistan ever hold joint military exercises to ‘deter’ a common enemy? Can India assist Pakistan in brokering a favorable deal with TTP? Can India strictly and perpetually abide by the Indus Waters Treaty? In short, can India stop considering Pakistan an enemy?
If the answer to all these questions is a flat no, why and how is India relevant to Pakistan?
Thinking outside the box, let us see the other side of the midnight as well. Let us dig deeper. Is it the ‘core’ issue that must be addressed and India’s cooperation is needed? Is it the past that keeps haunting Pakistan? Is there a psychological hangover upsetting Pakistan? Why co-existing peacefully is not important for India? Why can’t both countries follow the ‘live and let live’ approach? Does Pakistan fear an all-out onslaught from India that it must look in a perpetual appeasement mode? Why learning from history is so difficult for Pakistan? In short, what exactly it is that keeps India ‘relevant’ for Pakistan?
Calling terrorism an ‘industry’, FM Jaishankar would warn that ‘tolerance for any cross-border terrorism activity in India is very low’ adding that ‘if Pakistan winds down this industry that it has created, then people will treat them as a normal neighbor’. Never mind which kind of ‘industry’ is producing EU-DisinfoLab or Kulbhushan Yadav or creating an official apparatus to eliminate Hardeep Singh Nijjar and Gurpatwant Singh PannuN or causing grave concerns for Canada and the Five-Eyes while making bold headlines for sponsoring terrorism overseas. The fact remains: two wrongs do not make a right.
Letting both New Delhi and Islamabad to respond to each other’s ‘manufacturing’ abilities in one of the most abhorring fields, let us keep our focus on the subject and keep digging: What will the politicians of both countries sell during election campaigns if Pakistan and India became ‘normal’ neighbors? Who will be blamed if anything goes wrong at home? On the other hand, imagine a military syllabus without Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, Morgenthau and Chanakya? If the K and T words are eliminated from the South Asian strategic calculus, wouldn’t a classic chess game be transformed into a harmless game of ludo?
India is a smart enemy. It has done its homework properly and reached a pragmatic decision in principle at least for the foreseeable future - leave Pakistan to its own devices and let it suffer; ignore it openly, decisively and with contempt; and safeguard its own interests without expecting any good from its Western neighbor. This is what FM Jayshankar means when he says - Pakistan is irrelevant. Indeed, India has manifestly and unequivocally made its official position known to Pakistan. Maria Callas was not referring to Pak-India rigmarole when she observed - ‘When my enemies stop hissing, I shall know I am slipping’. However, the American opera singer had a point.
Way forward: Pakistan must analyze why it has been labelled as ‘irrelevant’ by its Eastern neighbor. Simultaneously, there is a need to reflect on India’s relevance to Pakistan particularly when the latter is in the process of putting its own house in order. Pakistan has spelled out its conditions for ‘normalization’. So has India. The buck may stop here. Meanwhile, Islamabad may try to come out of its apparent appeasing mode and adopt a ‘wait and see’ policy instead – at least till the time its Foreign Office is able to think beyond its pre-Aug 2019 brief on Pak-India relations. By denying a dialogue to Pakistan or refusing to normalize relations, India is making a strategic mistake it might regret later. By rebuffing Pakistan blatantly, India is committing a tactical error which might have ramifications in the long run. In this regard, for Islamabad, there is no harm in taking Napoleon Bonaparte’s wisdom - ‘Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.’
Najm us Saqib
The writer is a former Ambassador of Pakistan and author of eight books in three languages. He can be reached at najmussaqib1960@msn.com