Brigadier Nadir Mir
In 2011, my article, “Next War Iran” was published from Pravda (ru) Moscow. In 2013, my second book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ predicted among other things that USA would have to choose between war with Iran or North Korea. (Despite the American Two War Front Strategy). These predictions and of other Geopoliticians matter less!!
But someone who also predicted in 2013 that ultimately USA would end up fighting Iran was then simply a Rich Guy. Today he is President of USA – Donald Trump. To be clear, President Trump is not a War Monger or seeking a Major War! (Even after cancelling the Iran Nuclear Deal), his basic instincts are War Avoidance and making America Great again. (By saving money from foreign expenditure, instead of outrageously Expensive Wars). President Trump certainly seeks a better deal from Iran as he also expected from North Korea). Kim Jong Un and Trump meeting turned out as the Art of the Geopolitical Deal! However the Horoscopes of the times point towards warfare. Major wars are mostly due to Geopolitical Reasons. In the First World War — the Geopolitical pieces were placed on the European Chessboard. The murder of the Arch Duke Ferdinand was a spark to the powder keg. Today North Korea and Iran are the main conflict zones for USA. Even as Washington sanctions Moscow and trade wars with Beijing. While Turkish – US relations plummet Afghanistan becomes a deeper Geopolitical Blackhole for USA. Pakistan considerably stabilized due to the endeavors and state craft of its COAS General Bajwa remains essential for USA. In essence: US War – North Korea or Iran USA expected to fight with either Iran or North Korea.
Korean War 2018 – 2019
The reality is nobody wants war on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea
Having achieved Nuclear Deterrence (including ICBM reaching main land USA) Kim Jong Un can play at Nuclear Diplomacy in talks with Trump. Main aim of Kim is Regime Survival and to extract a good deal from affluent USA, South Korea and Japan. After Nuclear Brinkmanship, the pendulum swung to Nuclear Disarmament. Longevity of Nuclear talks suits North Korea and may even suit USA, because despite all the rhetoric, war does not suit anybody!
South Korea
National aim is prosperity (Gangnam Style). Peace with North Korea is the key. War will destroy most of South Korean Economy and almost all of Seoul. Without South Korean cooperation, USA cannot wage war on North Korea!
Japan
Last thing Japan wants is another Hiroshima. (Quite possible in case of war with North Korea). Of course Japan wants Peace with its interests secured on the Korean Peninsula and littoral waters.
China
China does not want a war (with Nuclear Escalation likely). North Korea is not far from Beijing. American Forces invading North Korea may force Chinese Military Intervention like in the previous Korean War. With a shared Global Economy and Trump – Xi amity, the two are not likely to conflict.
Russia
Russia does not want a Major War on its border, which can escalate. It is a status quo power in the Korean Region while it has proactive Geo – Strategy in the Gulf and Middle East, besides Eastern Europe.
USA
There is no viable military solution to the North Korean problem. An extremely expensive war if USA attacks North Korea. Even if USA remains invulnerable to North Korean Nuclear Attack, the rest of the regions including North Korea, South Korea and Japan will be greatly destroyed with catastrophic consequences for all. The end of US Pacific Alliance. The real American aim is to extract financial concessions from Japan, South Korea and make allies pay for their security.
US – Iran War
By Contrast US War with Iran likely because the contestants are conflict prone, even if they are not seeking a Major War. While they may seek limited wars or containment, chances of miscalculation and escalation are ever increasing. Iran is in conflict with Israel, US led Western World, and Saudi led GCC. (Quite a contest). The Gulf / Middle East scenario bears some resemblance to the Geopolitical European Chessboard of First World War 1914. The opposing alliances were preparing for war. The German Schlieffen Plan for invasion of France was rehearsed up teen times like the Israel Air Strikes on Iran Nuclear Projects has been debated endlessly. The Middle East is ripe for the Next Great War today. The Israel – Iran conflict is being predicted as the most likely war zone of 2018 – 2019 on the Middle East Chessboard. Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen stand mostly destroyed by local upheaval and from interventions or wars. The Arab Israel War has turned into War against Iran.
USA – Iran
President Trump’s canceling Nuclear Deal was followed by Secretary of State Pompeo’s 12 points virtual ultimatum to Iran. Many saw it as a Declaration of War, even if a slow winding one. Heavy sanctions have been planned by USA against Iran (Similar sanctions forced Japan to strike out at Pearl Harbour December 1941). In essence, US has started travelling down the road to the Next Big War in the Middle East. The only discussion is its timing, scope, duration, lethality and effects.
Iran
Iranian President Rouhani warned Trump about “Mother of All Wars”. “Mr. Trump don’t play with Lion’s Tail”. (Iran). In Fact Iranian Revolutionary Guards are preparing to block the Straits of Hormuz. The Iranian Answer to Sanctions – “Either All use the Waterways (Export Oil) or None”. Iranian Military Hero General Qassem Suleimani threatened to disrupt Gulf oil export if November 4 US sanctions implemented. Tehran has no intention of capitulating to US, at least not without a Major War. It would try War Avoidance, splitting US – EU, conflicting with Israel, unifying the Iranians under Ayatollahs, seeking succor from Russia and China and a lot more. Iran will not succumb to US pressure or sanctions even while employing deft diplomacy. Tehran cannot accept Pompeo or Bolton demands, which amounts to unconditional surrender in view of Tehran’s present World View. The Culturally Rich and proud Iranians will not accept Regime Change in Tehran even as sanctions bite. The only recourse will be to externalize the conflict. Already the Drums of War are beating in Syria (Henry Kissinger had foretold).
Israel
PM Netanyahu had termed, Iran lying about its Nuclear Activities. The Israeli Leadership or most of it believe Iran to be the Existential Threat to Israel. Most of the other Muslim States stand destroyed, neutralized or mired in internal feuds. Iran is considered the only challenger to US-Israel Geo Political Dominance of the Middle East. The recent clashes in Syria had clarified that Israel-Iran cannot Co Exist in Syria. War Drum Beat increases!
Saudi/ GCC (Arab World)
The Saudi/GCC conflict with Iran also escalates from Yemen to the broader Middle East. Four Arab historical capitals Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sana are under Persian Control is the lament of the Arab Street. An Iranian Corridor from Tehran to Mediterranean Sea is neither acceptable to Saudi/GCC Arabs nor the Israelis and of course not the Americans.
Russia
Russia under President Putin is back in the Middle East Game. (As predicted in my book, ‘Geopolitic Pakistan 2013) Moscow claims to be the only power dealing with Iran, Israel, Saudi/GCC and others. In fact all of them. Implying if USA can wage war in Gulf, Russia can broker peace in the Greater Middle East. Russia supports Iran but the Grand Masters of the Kremlin will employ variety of stratagems to become dominant in the Middle East. Since Russia cannot match American might, a USA embroiled in war with Iran may provide Geopolitical leverage and opportunity for it. (Case in point US entanglement and predicament in Afghanistan is Russia’s Delight). Moreover, with Putin Trump friendly diplomacy, Moscow will be more assertive, and paradoxically Trump may be more emboldened against Iran.
China
China marches relentlessly on OBOR – One Belt One Road. Its Geo Economics has taken President XI to UAE and forged new bonds. Already China has cemented economic ties with Iran and hopes to pipe the Iranian/ Gulf oil to Pakistani Port of Gwadar and then on to China. China is disdainful of US – Iran clash. However with economic parity with USA, Trade War mongering, its Economic Agenda with Iran continues. Tehran must have calculated Russia – China support and succor before challenging USA – Israel for the Next War.
President Trump and Iran War
President Trump had three critical submit and meetings. Firstly Trump Kim Submit in Singapore. A great success for both the leaders. Not only war on Korean Peninsula has been avoided but peace prospects are brighter. (Never mind nuclear disarmament by North Korea is a long term affair, if at all). Also if USA wages war with Iran, a Second Front in North Korea, is not hot at the moment.
Secondly, Brussels had heard President Trump. His message is clear. America will lead (to become the Great Again) everyone (Europeans) will pay. Washington believes while EU plays along with Tehran, when war looms the Western Alliance will close ranks and rain hell on Tehran. Thirdly, President Trump’s grand meeting with Putin at Helsinki. Both President Putin and President Trump spoke their minds as great leaders do. Both may influence each other in global affairs to an extent. Iran containment is the only subject on which President Trump and team Pompeo, Bolton, Mattis and others speak with one voice along with the broader public view. In essence USA is united on stopping Iran. If Iran plans to march forward, then a titanic clash is inevitable. “One little kick and they are done” (Iran), is the view of National Security Advisor Bolton and New US-Israeli “Project Iran” is headed by IDF's Maj. Gen. Nitzan Alon.
Pakistan and Iran War
With a hostile India in the East, turbulent Afghanistan in the North West, Pakistan does not need a war zone in its West – Iran. PM elect Imran Khan voiced his views for mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This theme has been subscribed by myself in my numerous writings and TV programs. Indeed, COAS General Bajwa has contributed tremendously to maintain balance in Pakistan’s ties between Saudi GCC and Iran. In fact, General Bajwa’s with his astute military diplomacy and Geopolitical acumen has achieved exceptional balance in Pakistan’s foreign relations. The challenge ahead of an Iran War will have to be dealt by the Political Elite. If a war against Iran actually takes place, it will have profound effects on Pakistan.
In any event, Pakistan must guard its Geopolitical – Geo economic interests which includes development of Gwadar – CPEC, while denying Chah Bahar – Afghanistan as Indian bases for Hybrid War against Pakistan.
The Pakistani people have the resilience, its soldiers heroic, brave and self-sacrificing. Pakistan needs the perfect Geo Strategy to deal with a major challenge of a New Great War in the Gulf.