Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s recent UAE-Qatar visits right before the Indian general elections indicate India’s new alignment. The inauguration of a grand Hindu temple in UAE, a sweeping pardon from the Emir of Qatar for eight retired Indian naval officers, and the extension of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) deal from Qatar are the highlights of the Indian PM’s visit stipulating that India is at the pinnacle of its Kautilyan diplomatic prowess. This recent visit marked PM Modi’s seventh trip to the UAE since assuming office in 2014 to showcase India’s evolving approach towards the Middle East under the government of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Apart from the primary agenda of directly engaging with and energising the BJP’s voter base in the region, the visit was also aimed at highlighting and strengthening the strategic and economic partnership which reflects India’s proactive engagement with the Middle East. This could cause challenges for Pakistan especially when the ties with the Middle East are undergoing a less smooth phase.
Historically, India’s foreign policy in the Middle East has been characterised by a careful balancing act, maintaining cordial relations with both Israel and the Arab nations. India did not have that kind of sway in the region before but since its departure from non-alignment, it has been making alliances in both security and economic domains through agreements like I2U2 (a new quadrilateral arrangement aimed at deepening economic cooperation among Israel, India, the UAE and the United States), and the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC). These developments signal India’s increasing influence and partnerships in the region.
The inauguration of the incredibly grand Baps temple, in the heart of the Arab world is an indicator of India’s successful diplomacy. The temple has been built at the cost of $95 million on an area of 27 acres of land donated by Emirate President Sheikh Muhammad and inaugurated by PM Modi. However, the inauguration of a Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi following the official opening of the Ram Temple on the site of a centuries-old mosque in Ayodhya paints a bleak picture of realpolitik where principles and morals are being sacrificed at the altar of history. But at the same time, it shows the influence and success of PM Modi’s newly launched Middle East strategy.
Similarly, the PM’s visit to Qatar was another breakthrough as Mr Modi managed to avert the death sentence awarded to eight former Indian naval officers, under the charge of espionage. It is argued that it was PM Modi who stepped in personally and changed the Qatari Emir’s mind. Another milestone that he achieved during the visit was the extension of the LNG deal for next twenty years which was about to expire in 2028. All these developments showcase that PM Modi is biding these ties because of his personally managed relationship with the rulers of these prominent Gulf countries marking a new era of its Middle East strategy.
Owing to the high probability of PM Modi’s win in the election, India is expected to engage with Muslim states and its diaspora in the region even more actively during his next term. Pakistan, because of its longstanding relationships with these Islamic nations needs to look at these advancements carefully as a slight gear shift has been observed in Pakistan’s historic relation with the Middle Eastern states. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been observed recently maintaining a deliberate silence on the issue of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) which can be attributed to its growing strategic relations with India which is a genuine concern for Pakistan.
Furthermore, the Middle East has also been one of the primary sources of financial support for Pakistan for several decades. Growing economic ties between India and the Arab world have the potential to hamper Pakistan’s economic relations as the volume of bilateral trade of India with the Arab countries is over US$ 110 billion. The Pakistani diaspora in UAE is already facing a sudden setback because of the suspension of labor visas under the UAE’s work policy for Pakistani workers while the Indian diaspora is enjoying the inauguration of Baps temple. This situation is causing serious concerns as the region employs the largest Pakistani diaspora and is the second-highest source of remittances for the country.
As both Islamabad and the Arab nations share historically strong foundations of multidimensional relations, there is a dire need for Pakistan to retain its ground in the Middle East. It is imperative for Pakistan to proactively engage with Arab nations, independent of India’s engagements, to bolster both economic and strategic ties. Under the new government, Pakistan has the opportunity to pave the way for fresh investment avenues, exemplified by initiatives like the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), which has garnered interest from numerous Gulf countries for potential investments. This approach can solidify existing bonds and create new avenues for mutual growth and cooperation, positioning Pakistan favorably in the evolving regional landscape.
Ramsha Shahid
The writer is a researcher at Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore, Pakistan. She can be reached at info@casslhr.com