ISTANBUL (AFP) - The world economy has begun recovering from recession but the crisis is not over because unemployment will rise and banks remain weak, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday. The IMF projected the global economy would grow 3.1 percent in 2010, after shrinking at an annualised 1.1 percent this year. The estimates were higher than forecasts put out in July of 2.5 percent expansion next year and a 1.4 percent contraction in 2009. The good news... is that in our view the recovery really has started. That does not mean, and I want to be crystal clear on this, that the crisis is over, IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn told students in a speech in Istanbul. Strauss-Kahn spoke as the IMF released its World Economic Outlook (WEO), ahead of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Istanbul next week. The delay between growth resuming and the peak of unemployment can be... as much as 14 months. Until unemployment will decrease, its difficult to say that the crisis is over. Its too early to crow victory, he said. There are still many downside risks, including the possibility that countries will wind down economic stimulus programmes too early as well as continued weakness in the global financial sector, he added. This risk of going back to a crisis situation is still there, he said. A protester threw a shoe at Strauss-Kahn during his discussion at Istanbuls Bilgi University, shouting IMF, get out of Turkey The shoe fell short of the IMF chief and the protester was escorted out of the hall by security guards. A 20-strong group of protesters outside chanted: IMF thief IMF thief The incident recalled the shoe-throwing tactic used in Iraq last year against then-US president George W. Bush. Large protests are expected in Istanbul against the IMF and the World Bank in the coming days. In its report, the IMF credited strong government action for shoring up demand and triggering a recovery from the worst crisis in decades. After a deep global recession, economic growth has turned positive, as wide-ranging public intervention has supported demand and lowered uncertainty and systemic risk in financial markets, the fund said in the WEO report. However, the IMF warned that the data shows that the rebound will be sluggish and for quite some time it would be slow to generate jobs. Meanwhile, credit would remain tight. The US economy, the worlds largest, was projected to grow 1.5 percent in 2010, following a sharp 2.7-percent decline this year. In Europe, the pace of decline was moderating, with the 16-nation eurozone seen returning to growth of 0.3 percent in 2010, instead of the 0.3 percent fall projected in the IMFs previous forecast in July. And emerging and developing economies were ahead of the pack, forecast to clock growth of 5.1 percent in 2010, led by China and India, at 9.0 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively. Driving the pick-up in global growth was the robust performance of Asian economies, underpinned by stabilisation or modest recovery elsewhere. Other stimulative factors were a rebound in manufacturing, replenishment of inventories, returning consumer confidence and firmer housing markets. Global growth of around 3.0 percent in 2010 would be far below the pace before the financial crisis struck in 2007 and accelerated in September 2008 after the bankruptcy of Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers. Credit constraints remain a significant barrier to growth, despite the hundreds of billions of public dollars pumped into the financial system to unblock the gridlock, the IMF economists said in their report. Banks lack the capital to restore lending to pre-crisis levels. The IMF estimates that global bank writedowns could reach 2.8 trillion dollars for the period between mid-2007 through end-2010, with 1.5 trillion. The bulk of losses are expected to hit to US, British and eurozone banks.