The words ‘war on terror’ became a household name after the 9/11 incident in New York. The war was declared against non-state actors trying to impose their agenda of states. What happened in Afghanistan is happening on a larger scale in Syria. The war in Syria is now into its fifth year and may spill over into Jordan as it did into Iraq. Pakistan for now has contained the terrorists but the threat remains lurking since the secular India had been funding them and may double the funds. The proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East and the west turning a blind eye to the whole situation has led to the worst migrant crisis the Europe has seen since World War II.
The chaos spreads from the deserts of Libya to the rigged mountainous areas of Afghanistan. The whole region is turbulent and the turbulence is likely to grow with the lone super power turning a blind eye to what it started and is very much responsible for. The anarchy is likely to spread into Eastern Europe and other parts of the world. It all began with the occupation of Afghanistan by NATO forces and followed by the invasion of Iraq. The idea of American forces going into Iraq was not so good but the idea of taking out the forces from Iraq was worse.
Iraq had Shia majority and about eight percent Christians besides the Sunni population. A large number of Christians have migrated abroad while the rise of Islamic State terror group has put Sunni under Iraq’s current regime in danger. Large part of Iraq has been captured by the ISIS. The idea to equip Kurds with latest weapons to fight the ISIS may not pay in the end as the separatist movement will start if it all ends and that would be trouble for Iraq, Turkey and Syria.
Syria was a multicultural and multi-religious society home to more than 20 communities including Christians, Druze, Shias, Sunnis and Maronites. Peace and harmony has been lost. An example may explain the situation. In September 2013 Nusra Islamists (remnants of Al Qaeda) took over Maloula the oldest Christian town in the world. The five thousand Christians and two thousand Muslims of the town spoke ancient Armaic language that Christ spoke had always lived in peace. These people are now refugees in other parts of the world and the language is lost for good. West played to the Saudi Arabia’s demand and facilitated Islamists fighting the Syrian regime that was backed by Hizbullah, Iran and later openly by Russia. The war may spill over into Jordan.
Over 250,000 people have been killed in Syria and millions have been forced to flee in search of greener pastures in Europe. Since the west turned a blind eye to the crisis building up in Greece and Turkey due to influx of refugees they were caught unaware. Those crossing the borders into Europe were not only Syrians but people from other countries as well. There were more than 100,000 Pakistanis illegally living in Greece. Most of them paid the human traffickers to get into Europe in the current refugee crisis. A larger number of Afghans are also among the Syrian refugees besides Iraqis and some Sudanese and Somalians. When refugees come not all are innocent. A lot of rogue elements enter as well. Pakistan is a testimony to the fact. We housed nearly three million Afghans but they brought the culture of guns and drugs with them. Pakistan is still fighting to control the menace.
The Arab Spring left a lot of wounds. Egypt though stable for the time being stands divided practically. Tunisia was a small country and was easily recoverable. The fate of Libya, where the West led the war against Gaddafi, is the worst example. There is practically no government and anarchy rules the once stable country. Sudan got divided after a long civil war. Now Sudan government’s writ is only in the capital Khartoum. The nearby Somalia has no government and anarchy rules there. Across the Strait of Aden is Yemen where the proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran has ruined the country. It would take years to ensure peace in the country and bring back the refugees.
Afghanistan is far from getting the much-needed peace. Capture of Kunduz city is an example. Once the task of security was left to the local force the Taliban were able to move in. This will definitely affect the stalled talks with Taliban. There should not be early evacuation of NATO troops from Afghanistan even if President Ashraf Ghani is able to make a deal with Taliban for power sharing.
Pakistan has been on the front line of the war on terror. It has paid a lot of price for leading this war. The Zarb-e-Azab operation against terrorists continues. For once the army is trying to take the bull by horns and let the democracy grow in its own right. The proactive Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif is doing a good job but unfortunately he has been criticised in the international media for the very role he is playing in the war on terror. This means the West does not want a stable Pakistan and wants the war on terror to continue. The western analysts, however, fail to understand that the longer they continue this war there are chances of main groups dividing into more splinter groups. The non-state actors importance will continue to grow and nation states will start disappearing as it happened in the case of Somalia and Libya.
Lastly where is the money that the nation states had in international banks and corporations? Libya and Iraq were oil exporting rich countries. The people of those countries have the right to ask where it all went. How would the people twenty years on recall the last four years of President Barak Obama? Perhaps they would think that this was the time things could have been contained.