India’s G20 challeng

 As India gets ready to host the G-20 summit in New Delhi on 9-10 September, the In­dian government is publicising a message of ‘international har­mony’. Earlier in Novem­ber last year, announcing the theme of the eigh­teenth G20 Summit as “One Earth, One Family, One Future”, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said that his country would im­bue a new mind set within human­ity, help the world move beyond greed and confrontation, and culti­vate a ‘universal sense of one-ness’. However, in a bitterly divided G20, ensuring a harmonious outcome of the summit will be arduous. 

Of late, India’s diplomacy and im­age have been riding a high tide. A two-year term on the Security Coun­cil, the Presidency of the Shang­hai Cooperation Organisation, the on-going G-20 presidency and the landing on the moon. However, the forthcoming high-profile G-20 Delhi Summit, despite being a big oppor­tunity, also has its challenges. The Ukraine war may cast its dark shad­ow on the meeting. In March this year, India faced a diplomatic fias­co being unable to secure an agreed declaration at the end of a G20 For­eign Ministers’ meeting in New Del­hi. It remains to be seen how much India would resist Western pres­sure to condemn Russia for its inva­sion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly will not attend the summit in person. 

The US-India relations continue to deepen. Following Mr. Modi’s visit to Washington in June 2023, the Joint Statement described these relations as ‘Comprehensive Global and Stra­tegic Partnership’, anchored in a new level of trust and mutual un­derstanding. The US-India Defence ties are upgraded to the ‘Next Gen­eration Defence Partnership’. Apart from defence, the two countries are engaged in close cooperation in a wide range of fields including criti­cal and emerging technologies, re­newable energy, space science, and space technologies and share deep­ening strategic convergences. The US-India Joint Statement did not ex­plicitly condemn Russia. 

On the other hand, India has long viewed Russia as a reliable part­ner that has played a central role in building up Indian military capabili­ties in multiple domains, has consis­tently supported it at the United Na­tions and allowed it sufficient space to exercise strategic autonomy vis-à-vis the West. Post-Ukraine inva­sion, however, New Delhi faces quite a number of challenges linked to its ties to Moscow. Internationally, In­dia has had to balance its support for the principle of sovereignty and ter­ritorial integrity with its resistance to vote for any resolution that con­demns Russia at the UN. Policymak­ers in New Delhi have chosen to walk a tightrope to be neutral on the is­sue. However, the longer the conflict lasts, it will make it tougher for India to maintain its current posture with both Moscow and Washington. 

The other major challenges to G20 summit include the global economic recovery, the ongoing geostrategic tensions, setting ambitious climate targets including climate resilience measures, sustainable agriculture, clean energy transition, promot­ing sustainable development, and shaping a global health agenda. As a self-styled advocate of the Global South, Indian Prime Minister Nar­endra Modi has called for the Afri­can Union (AU) to become a mem­ber of the G20. 

The Ukraine conflict is likely to be the most divisive issue at the sum­mit. India cannot afford not to have a final declaration. India will have fall-back options. First, to use the Bali language, in which member states reiterated their respective “nation­al positions as expressed in oth­er fora, including the UN Security Council and the UN General Assem­bly”. It nonetheless referred to Res­olution No. ES-11/1 dated 2 March 2022 (with the voting record) which “deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federa­tion against Ukraine and demands its complete and unconditional with­drawal from the territory of Ukraine”. 

Another possibility may be the language used in the US-India Joint Statement on June 22, 2023, in which the two sides “expressed their deep concern over the conflict in Ukraine and mourned its terrible and tragic humanitarian consequences.” It did not condemn Russia but called for respect for international law, princi­ples of the UN charter, and territorial integrity and sovereignty. It remains to be seen what minimum language would be acceptable to the EU states. 

While India seeks a big power sta­tus, it continues to receive growing censure from International Human Rights organisations. Human Rights Watch’s (HRW) World Report 2023 states that the Bharatiya Janata Par­ty (BJP)-led government contin­ued its systematic discrimination and stigmatization of religious and other minorities, particularly Mus­lims. BJP supporters increasingly committed violent attacks against targeted groups. The Amnesty In­ternational 2022-23 report states, “Punitive demolitions of Muslim family homes and businesses were carried out with impunity.” 

Commenting on India’s demo­cratic regression, an editorial in Le Monde of 24 April 2023 stated that India is now classified as an “elec­toral autocracy” by the independent Swedish institute V-Dem. “This au­thoritarian drift is also revealed in a disturbing desire to redefine India as a purely Hindu nation”, and erase the country’s history. Le Monde concludes, that this makes it all the more regrettable that countries that claim to defend democratic values prefer to remain silent, so as not to upset a regime that is asserting itself in the new global geopolitical order.