ISLAMABAD - Pakistan Meteorological Department Wednesday issued an alert for the Northern Areas warning the local communities that 5 degree high temperature than the normal can cause Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF).

“Due to persistent heat wave conditions in Gilgit-Balistan and Chitral, the temperatures are likely to increase by more than 5 degree C from normal, which may continue for next 3-4 days”, said GLOF Alert-1 issued by the Pakistan Meteorological Department.

“Melt rate will enhance due to high temperatures and expected localised heavy downpour which may trigger GLOF event in Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral area”, Pakistan Meteorological Department further said. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) occur when the ice walls containing the reservoir fail, sending entire lakes down to inhabited areas below which causes severe loss of lives and physical assets.

Meteorological Department advised: “People residing along the water ways must remain vigilant during the period. Local communities are advised to remain alert and concerned authorities to take precautionary measures”.

Similarly sources in the IRSA told The Nation that due to high flows in the rivers across the country, caused by the heavy downpour, there is a forecast of high to very flood in next 5 to 6 days at Guddu.

Meanwhile in a letter to the Ministry of Water and Power, the IRSA said: “If the approved Tarbella filling criteria was followed there would have been no flooding the rivers”. Since the ministry is not following the approved criteria of Tarbella filling and storing only one foot water per day in the reservoir, therefore, there is high flow of water in the rivers.

As per the water data, on August 2, there was medium flood in the River Kabul, Kalabagh and Chasma while at Marala Khanki and Qadirabad there was medium-high flood while the Indus at Tarbella there was at low flood. In next 24 hours the water at Marala will increase from 200,000 to 250,000 cusecs.

Indus at Tarbela inflows were 3,40,300 cusecs and outflows 3,12,700 cusecs, Kabul at Nowshera: inflows 50,100 cusecs and outflows 50,100 cusecs, Jhelum at Mangla inflows 45,300 cusecs and outflows 10,000 cusecs, Chenab at Marala inflows 1,26,600 cusecs and Outflows 98,800 cusecs.

The flow in barrages were as follows; Jinnah inflows 3,76,900 cusecs and outflows 3,68,900 cusecs, Chashma inflows 3,87,700 cusecs and outflows 3,89,400 cusecs, Taunsa inflows 2,77,800 cusecs and outflows 2,55,500 cusecs, Panjnad inflows 28,300 cusecs and outflows 13,200 cusecs, Guddu inflows 2,33,500 cusecs and outflows 1,97,200 cusecs, Sukkur inflows 1,91,900 cusecs and outflows 1,36,500 cusecs, Kotri inflows 1,27,200 cusecs and outflows 88,400.

According to the storage data Tarbela presents level 1,533 feet against the maximum conservation level 1,550 feet, Mangla present level 1,226.75 feet against the maximum conservation level 1,242 feet while Chashma present level 646.40 feet against the maximum conservation level 649 feet.

AFP adds: South Asia, home to one-fifth of the world's population, could see humid heat rise to unsurvivable levels by century's end if nothing is done to halt global warming, researchers said Wednesday.

The study in the journal Science Advances warned of "summer heat waves with levels of heat and humidity that exceed what humans can survive without protection."

The research is based on two climate models. One is a "business-as-usual" scenario in which little is done to contain climate change, and the second is aimed at limiting temperature rise to well below two degrees Celsius, as pledged by more than 190 nations under the 2015 Paris climate accord.

The study is the first of its kind to look not just at temperatures, but at the forecast of "wet-bulb temperature," which combines temperature, humidity and the human body's ability to cool down in response. The survivability threshold is considered to be 35 degrees Celsius, or 95 degrees Fahrenheit.

Under a business-as-usual scenario, "wet-bulb temperatures are projected to approach the survivability threshold over most of South Asia, and exceed it at a few locations, by the end of the century," said the report.

About 30 percent of the population in the region would be exposed to these harmful temperatures, up from zero percent at present, said the report.

The densely populated farming regions of South Asia could fare the worst, because workers are exposed to heat with little opportunity for escape into air-conditioned environments.

"Deadly heat waves could begin within as little as a few decades to strike regions of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, including the fertile Indus and Ganges river basins that produce much of the region's food supply," said the report.

Indian is home to 1.25 billion people, while another 350 million live in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Already in 2015, the fifth deadliest heat wave in modern history swept over large parts of India and Pakistan, killing some 3,500 people.

But researchers said their models gave cause for hope, too. Under the scenario in which steps are taken to limit warming over the coming decades, the population exposed to harmful wet-bulb temperatures would increase from zero to just two percent.

Temperatures would still reach dangerous levels (over 31 Celsius), but would not be quite so close to the fatal threshold.

"There is value in mitigation, as far as public health and reducing heat waves," said lead author Elfatih Eltahirhe, professor of environmental engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Miami.

"With mitigation, we hope we will be able to avoid these severe projections. This is not something that is unavoidable."