Imagine a global chessboard, where states maneuver to secure power, John Mearsheimer states, and becoming a regional “king” is crucial before aiming for the global crown. China’s growing interest in Afghanistan, from accepting the Taliban envoy to infrastructure deals, could be seen as strategic chess moves. While resources are a factor, the bigger play might be China positioning itself as the dominant force in Asia.
Afghanistan’s complex history and current instability pose significant challenges for its neighbors. The Taliban’s rule has raised serious concerns about human rights and the resurgence of extremist groups. Interestingly, Xi’s administration became the first in the world to designate former Taliban spokesperson Bilal Karimi as an official ambassador to Beijing following more than two years of talks. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs made it clear that this acceptance of Taliban ambassador should not be taken as an indication of Beijing’s official approval of the country’s current administrators of Afghanistan, however, the West isn’t comfortable with the idea of this diplomatic coziness between China and Afghanistan.
The 2021 US withdrawal from Afghanistan marked a seismic shift in the South Asian geopolitical landscape, creating a vacuum of power and uncertainty. China, a rising global power with long-standing interests in the region, has stepped forward to fill this void, engaging with the Taliban regime and pursuing its own geopolitical, economic, and strategic goals in Afghanistan. China’s primary geopolitical concern in Afghanistan is the potential for instability and the resurgence of militant groups like the Uyghur separatists of East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). A Taliban-led Afghanistan, if unable to maintain control, could provide a breeding ground for such groups, posing a direct security threat to China’s western borders. Additionally, China seeks to counter US influence in the region and project itself as a responsible regional power capable of contributing to regional stability.
Engaging with the Taliban, albeit cautiously, allows China to exert some influence and shape the future of Afghanistan. Afghanistan holds vast mineral resources, including lithium, copper, and rare earths, crucial for China’s technological development and infrastructure projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While previous mining ventures in Afghanistan have faced challenges, the Taliban’s willingness to cooperate with China presents an opportunity for economic engagement. China has already pledged humanitarian aid and expressed interest in investing in infrastructure projects, potentially offering much-needed economic relief to the war-torn nation. A contract for the extraction of oil from the Amu Darya basin was inked in January last year by the administration led by the Taliban and Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co (CAPEIC) in China. The deal has a 25-year validity period, and CAPEIC will invest $540 million over the course of three years. Since July 2022, China has boosted the import of Afghan pine nuts and awarded zero-tariff treatment to 98% of Afghan commodities. Afghanistan’s economy is intended to be more closely integrated with China through the removal of trade restrictions for Afghan goods.
The fact that China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are holding successful trilateral meetings every year may give the idea that Kabul would be an easy place to join the Belt and Road Initiative. However, there are still insurmountable obstacles because the danger to Chinese nationals conducting business in Afghanistan keeps getting worse. More Chinese security forces will be stationed at the Khunjerab Pass in the Pamir Knot as a result of Beijing’s attempt to link the CPEC with Afghanistan, advancing China’s geopolitical objectives in Central Asia. China’s strategic interests in Afghanistan are intertwined with its broader ambitions in Central Asia. A stable Afghanistan would facilitate trade and investment across the region, furthering BRI’s reach and enhancing China’s economic and political influence.
Additionally, Afghanistan shares borders with Pakistan, a key strategic partner for China, and with Iran, another significant player in the region. Engaging with Afghanistan strengthens China’s regional partnerships and bolsters its strategic position in South Asia. Pakistan has historically maintained close ties with the Taliban and shares a vigorous relationship with both China and the US. Pakistan views China as a crucial economic and strategic partner and may benefit from increased Chinese investment in Afghanistan. China’s growing presence in Afghanistan is viewed with apprehension by India, which shares a long-standing border dispute with China and has historically supported anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan. India’s concerns stem from the potential for a China-aligned Afghanistan to pose a security threat, provide support to Pakistan, and limit India’s regional influence. The US may view China’s engagement as an attempt to fill the power vacuum and expand its influence, potentially leading to competition and rivalry in the region. China’s success as a regional hegemon will depend on its ability to navigate these competing interests and intricate partnerships. While Afghanistan’s resources are undoubtedly attractive, extracting them requires a stable environment and addressing security concerns. China’s economic clout might offer a solution, but it’s not a guaranteed path to control.
Navigating these issues while gaining meaningful influence will be a delicate task for China. Furthermore, other players like the US, Russia, and India have their own interests in Afghanistan, creating a potential geopolitical quagmire. Therefore, navigating this complex game won’t be easy for China. Can China checkmate its way to regional dominance? Only time will tell, but Afghanistan has become a pivotal piece on the board!
Dr. Gul.i.Ayesha Bhatti
The writer is a current affairs analyst. She can be reached at guleayeshabhatti@gmail.com