The Strait of Hurmoz: Considered as key chokepoint in the entire world between the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman; this is the only way out of Gulf; 21 million barrels of oil flow through it every single day; experts have long feared this as a flash point in the Gulf; patrolled by the Iranian Navy; US and Britain Navy has increased their presence in the Gulf; and Russia is increasing its influence too...
US, British, Iranian and Russian navies are vying for space in this water strip (90 nautical miles long, with width varying from about 52 nautical miles to 21 nautical miles), would it make Strait of Hurmoz safe or unsafe? Would the world be more or less in danger with the presence of Russian Navy in the Gulf? President Vladimir Putin is likely to reveal his Gulf security plan on or around September 20, at the annual Valdai International Discussion Club, being held in Sochi. Thus so far it is fuzzy that how the Gulf nations will react to his policy initiative, and whether the United States and the Europe will pay any consideration to it?
It is to see that how the Russian desire to dominate the Gulf would be taken by other regional stakeholders, particularly the United States and her European allies. In attempting to make the pitch, Putin would certainly keep a keen watch on American internal political happenings and her adversaries, hoping that US President Donald Trump may respect a conciliatory track, which will help to keep the Persian Gulf calm during his 2020 US presidential election campaign.
Russians believe in engagement with all the Middle Eastern states; (unlike, Israel and Saudi Arabia Middle East specific Policy of United States), but her focus remains on Iran; as, with a speculation that Russia will give more Weapons to Iran, but it remains a question. Russia and Iran are close allies and of course China supports them diplomatically and materially; since all the three nations want to come out of western financial system. The US sanctions on Iran bring all negotiations on this multitude of topics, to a dead stop and it has potentially increased Russia’s ability to negotiate. In recent years, Russia has been able to maintain her composure as a negotiator as well as a super power: that projects Russia in a positive way unlike U.S.
This type of Russian supremacy is much dangerous and could possibly jeopardize the maritime activity in the Gulf. Russia’s ultimate aim is to see Kingdom of Saudi-Arabia disintegrated, there are warnings and indicators that KSA is in myths of implosions: not only prevailing difference between senior princes but also in the economic field, and the inability of the KSA to provide welfare to its citizens. Not only President Putin and his advisors have studied history, and also are on the historic mission to have new regional security architecture for the Middle East; in simple words, Russia would lead the front seat in the Emerging Geo-Strategic arrangement in Gulf, unlike, Russia has been doing in the past.
Alliance obsessed by United States in the Middle East has begun disassembling; in light of the fact that the United States continually faces teething troubles in the Middle East that require atypical US consideration and the conscientiousness of noteworthy military, financial, and strategic assets. The Trump regime is constraining partners, including Germany, France, Belgium, Norway, Japan, South Korea and Australia, to contribute their Navel forces to this alliance. The British government has confirmed that it has officially joined the US Operation to protect merchant shipping in the Gulf. Raising the stakes, Israel said it would join what the United States calls a thrust to support security of maritime traffic in the Gulf.
However, it is not too late, to limit the apprehension of Emerging scenario of Middle East. U.S. needs to portray its interests with better care, while figuring out how to narrow down the gap between her policy and actions in the Middle East; by, soft approach of returning to the 2015 Nuclear Deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), and in the end lifting sanctions, and appreciate Arab-Iranian negotiation over the Gulf would significantly lessen pressures and along these lines will decrease Russia’s capacity to grow its position as the only negotiator in the Gulf.