The present political and state settlement in ME came into being after the First World War with the collapse of the Ottoman Turkish Empire. The region attained significance for not only being the center of three major religions of the world – Islam, Christianity and Judaism – but also because of the discovery of the largest reserves of oil and gas. The creation of an ever-expanding Israel in 1948 by the major western powers jolted the region but west Asia largely maintained its post-colonial structures. A chain of significant events that started in 1970s has led to a series of quantitative changes that would require qualitative changes in the old political and state settlement in the ME. In all probability it is going to be the end of the old political alignment in the ME albeit not without an excruciating and even a prolonged bloody conflict that may have the potential of sucking in outside powers. Military defeat of Arabs at the hands of Israel in 1973 that led to the decline of secular Arab nationalism, Iran’s Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iraq’s war against the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1980s, US invasions of Iraq in August 1990 and in March 2003 and Arab Spring that started in December 2010 in Tunisia and spread to a number of other Arab countries, have all culminated into the present crises in the Middle East with Yemen being its latest hotbed.
After the fall of Saddam Hussain, the emergence of a pro-Iran Iraq was almost a fiat accompli as the Shia majority population of that country dominated the new political system. The dissolution of the Baathist Iraqi army in post-Saddam Iraq by the US occupation forces created a vacuum as the aforementioned army was the backbone of that state. The unrest and alienation among the Sunni tribes in the north of Iraq further complicated the situation.
When faced with the meteorite rise of the IS, the new Iraqi army fell like a house of cards. This negative development created a panic in Iraq as well as the wider region. The western bureaucracies took a lot of time in deciding to launch an aerial bombing campaign against IS positions and to provide weapons and training to Iraqi forces. The said delay enabled Iran to take initiative for militarily filling this vacuum. Iran not only sent arms, ammunition and trainers but also dispatched actual fighting forces led by Al Quds brigade headed by Major General QassemSoleimani, who is the new rising star in Iran’s ruling circles. It so happened that Iranian forces were already helping the beleaguered Alawite dominated Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad to hold out against Sunni rebels. Iran has also had a strong military footprint in Lebanon for a long time through its traditional ally Hezbollah, which was not just holding the fort in Lebanon but was also actively fighting in Syria in favor of the Assad regime. As if this was not enough a Houthi rebellion in Yemen opened floodgates for Iranian political and military influence in Yemen. This was the last proverbial straw on the camel’s back as far as the House of Saud was concerned since Yemen is regarded to be the soft belly of KSA and that is why the later decided to physically counter Iranian expansion by forging an Arab (Sunni) military alliance against it.
Iranian Ayatollahs were facing severe internal challenges in recent years. International economic and financial sanctions were creating pain in Iran by producing serious socio-economic hardships for the population. The reformer President Hassan Rouhani has been able to mold the country‘s foreign policy to a certain extent but he couldn’t do anything to end the severe political repression that is creating unrest and alienation among the people of Iran. But with the dramatic expansion of Iran’s political clout and military might into the Arab heartland, the ruling Ayatollahs are able to boast about a “ historic “ feat that could not have been achieved even by King Reza Shah Pahlavi. A recent Reuter report labels it “an attempt to create a new Persian and Shia empire on Arab land”. The same Reuter reports quotes Tehran MP Ali Reza Zakani who “like Suleimani is close to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, boasts they have three Arab capitals in the bag, Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut, with Sanaa soon to follow.”
There is rage, fear and frustration among Arab monarchies. Except Egypt where the strong army was able to effectively reverse the political process unleashed by the Arab spring, the Sheikhs and monarchs are finding it extremely difficult to politically role back mass uprisings within their own countries. Many of the Arab autocrats hope to arrest the mass uprisings in their own lands by militarizing the conflict and by militarily crushing Houthis of Yemen and by making an example out of them. Arab Sheikdoms are also creating an anti-Iranian block of not only Sunni Arab countries but they would love to rope in countries like Pakistan and Turkey into this block because they know that only aerial bombardment wouldn’t defeat Houthis, and ultimately they would require boots on the Yemeni ground. Since most of the present Arab states have remained Turkish colonies in the past and due to close geographical proximity, Turkey naturally can’t remain indifferent to serious political and military developments in her immediate neighborhood resulting in Persian domination. So in all probability, Turkey, despite its own reservations about Arab sheikdoms, will take their side against Iran in Yemen but in view of her long historical experience, Turkey is expected to show extraordinary caution in deciding about boots on the ground.
Government of Pakistan has dithered on the question of taking a clear decision. While the foreign office has been making vague noises, news reports from the Arab capitals have been suggesting from day one that Pakistan has already committed to send its troops for Saudi support. The generous gift of one and a half billion dollars in advance to the present government and the recent high-profile reception of our PM during his recent Saudi visit clearly indicated that some big demands were coming our way. But no one could have expected the demand for militarily fighting the Saudi war in Yemen. In any case Pak-Saudi relationship has a long tradition and a large number of Pakistani workers are working there and in the UAE (their pathetic working conditions not withstanding) so we have to maintain good relations based on mutual solidarity with KSA. Helping that country in building her military’s capacity is acceptable. But we have too much on our plate in terms of fighting against terrorism and guarding our frontiers to spare our armed forces for fighting on foreign lands. Iran is also a brotherly Muslim neighboring country and we have no reason for directly or indirectly going to war against her. Last but not the least, we shouldn’t forget that the sectarian schism is already tearing the ME apart and we can’t afford to further intensify our own problems in this regard.
Arab countries are also putting pressure on western powers to make their ongoing nuclear dialogue with Iran conditional to Iran’s policy towards Arab states. While the Obama administration and European countries are making serious efforts for finalizing the nuclear deal, Republicans in the US are taking a tough stand against Iranian expansion. In his recent article titled “Breaking Iran’s Stranglehold on Iraq”, MrZalmayKhalilzad, a prominent US expert on the region and a senior official in the previous Republican administration writes,“ a credible balance of power must be established to deter and if necessary defeat further Iranian expansion “. It is pretty clear that the U.S. will support the resistance of Arab governments against Iran in the long-term and Israel will also not remain indifferent. US and Israel would like to have a “new“ ME but it would not be the one dominated by Iran. Escalation of military conflict in ME can hinder Chinese plans for building economic zones in the region so the Chinese will naturally stand in favor of contraction of the conflict.