At Penpoint While it seems that the focus of the terrorists has shifted to Lahore, the latest attacks reflect not just a change in strategy, but also in methodology, as if the terrorist recruiters were running out of volunteers intent upon giving up their lives, and their replacement by those who wanted some chance of survival. However, there have been few signs of a further shift to South Punjab, though this is the slogan being chanted by the authorities, starting with Interior Minister Rehman Malik. Though the battle area has expanded to the Punjab, it cannot be said to constitute a new area, and the decisive fight will still take place in the tribal areas. In fact, so long as the Americans still continue in the occupation of Afghanistan, which will be the decisive battleground. However, the most noticeable change in Lahore was the abandonment of bombs, in favour of bullets. The attackers still carried suicide jackets, but that was probably more a holdover from the past, when the terrorist blew himself up, thus using himself as a weapon. One result of this switch to weapons, rather than explosives, has been that the terrorists are more likely to survive. That seems to have been the reason for the second attack, which was carried out to get rid of the terrorist who survived. It does not show a new development in the militants, but is an old procedure. So now that the militants have switched over to a mode that affords a chance of survival, that will become more difficult, as there will be naturally more survivors. There will also be the loss of military experience inherent in any suicide mission, or killing of any survivor. Nevertheless, the suicide blast presented the advantage of maximising the killing of the enemy by the inexperienced. Thus, while it had the advantage of being carried out by the highly motivated, it had the corresponding disadvantage of it being hard to find those with sufficient motivation. The present method, since it involves a chance of survival, is likelier to find volunteers, and is likelier to allow the accumulation of experience, as volunteers may go on more than one mission. Incidentally, this is also a sign that Indians might be at work. RAW finds gathering recruits hard enough so it does not want new people for every mission. The same principle operates in the selection of Lahore, so near the border, as the arena for the terrorists. Though the terrorists seem to have settled on Lahore for operations, the expected shift to South Punjab has not taken place. However, since the Punjab as a whole, not just Lahore, is seeing heightened operations, the Punjab-based components of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan are coming to prominence. Since these were originally parties with a strong sectarian orientation, their killing of non-Muslim minorities is understood. This is the first targeting of Ahmadis by these parties, which had previously gone after Christians and Shias. Though an anti-non-Muslim agenda is not part of the Al-Qaeda agenda, the parties making it up in the Punjab have taken up these particular cudgels. It is also to be seen that they are not to be made to deviate from their agenda by their joining forces, or perhaps merging into, Al-Qaeda, or at least the TTP. Apart from the geographical spread of these attacks, there is also the possibility of their being concentrated on the minorities, particularly on their places of worship on occasions when a number would be gathered. As for the movement towards South Punjab, which the Interior Minister has been making much of, the element of political seeking of advantage, as mentioned by the Punjab Chief Minister, cannot be ruled out. However, while there is definitely an element of political game-playing, the essential truth of the claim cannot be dismissed as much out of hand as the claim that there should be action in the Punjab. The game-playing comes in the fact that the acts of terror are taking place in the Punjab, and thus the scenario is developing for action to be taken against the Punjab government on the excuse of the 'war on terror, though the central government has taken action before, and failed. It may be preparing again, this time with backing from the US, still desperate to win victories in the war before it leaves Afghanistan. The reality comes from the fact that the so-called Punjabi Taliban consist of groups which have a strong bias against non-Muslims, and which were also being used in the Kashmir jihad, after receiving training in Afghanistan. The personnel of these groups comes mainly from southern Punjab, and thus the phenomenon of the so-called Punjabi Taliban is essentially a southern one, even though there has so far been no shifting of foreign fighters to the area from the tribal areas, something which was expected as the tribal areas became too uncomfortable to hold them. The tribal areas seem to be where they are staying. There may be two reasons for this. First, the army operation there has not cleared the area as claimed. Second, it must not be imagined that the foreign fighters are any less tenacious of purpose than the terrorists who operated in Lahore. Their target was first the Russians, now it is the Americans, or whoever is occupying Afghanistan. A move from the tribal areas would mean moving away from that battlefield. It should be remembered that, while Pakistan may well provide an attractive target, it is not the primary focus of the terrorist forces. It must not be forgotten that the terrorists are trying to get to Heaven. The terror that spread among the citizenry was something of an unplanned by-product, but it has to be dealt with by the government responsible for law and order, the provincial, which does not have any programme to tackle it. That terrorists can reach out into a public hospital is, perhaps, symptomatic. The police can only offer up casualties, even though it has been the primary force for combating terrorism in Lahore. The problem is no longer one of mere policing, which might be solved by better intelligence and better information. Just as the US will withdraw from Afghanistan by next year, the Pakistani state will have to weigh its relationship with the US, which is what motivates the actions against Pakistan, which seems to have brought no benefits, nothing but an escape from default in a US-dominated world financial system, a default which would have been caused by government profligacy, and the boons of a PPP government. The US relationship will have to be jettisoned before the terrorists can be tackled. Those challenging the state, whether by killing those under its protection or its servants, may have to be punished, but their policies probably have to be adopted. It must not be forgotten that the anti-Americanism among the militants is not something which is at odds with society, and in fact adopting their policies would be in line with the feelings of its people. Email: maniazi@nation.com.pk