I once wrote that the ‘Panama Pyre’ will keep burning. My contextual argument was then framed on the premise that ultimate ends of justice would be met.
But the time consumed from the Supreme Court proceedings to a logical conclusion of accountability cases is likely to be a long haul with many twists and turns. Hudaibya, the key to money laundering has not yet been opened by National Accountability Bureau. So in the interim, Pakistan treads the path of uncertainty and friction created by organs of the state against the state. A logical conclusion is easier said than done. A series of events could destabilise Pakistan to a tragic point of no return.
While the law will take its course depending on the character of prosecution, the interim is being used by the Sharif family to eclipse criminal charges in public perceptions.
To make this public relations strategy viable, they have the advantages of still holding the federal government, Punjab, Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir. They have additional support in political allies, complete control of the lower house and a tacit support from PPPP controlling the Senate. This also means that the Sharif family is not likely to meet any tangible resistance in Sindh. Support also comes from business houses and cartels that have been complicit with them in siphoning money. Even now, all transparency and regulatory mechanisms remain in their firm control.
So based on a calculus, it is the Supreme Court of Pakistan extending the ‘rule of law’ through a Constitution; subject to amendments by the Parliament versus the rest. This is what else but anarchy? The military establishment is staying away, only likely to intervene within the bounds of the constitution.
So far the Supreme Court has asserted itself in disqualifying the prime minister, who has managed to circumvent this disqualification through an individual centric amendment to law. The current prime minister and cabinet are titular in nature with the elder Sharif still calling shots. One of the main accused, Ishaq Dar, the finance minister was abetted by the prime minister to fly away to UK on government transport. Hudaibya and Ishaq Dar hold the key to money laundering. It is ironic that the man, who long-walked Pakistan’s economy to abysmal lows, purportedly cannot take a few steps because of sickness.
The political opposition could have been more assertive if it was vigilant and competent.
MQM Pakistan could have played a mainstreaming role had it conclusively severed links with London. This has resulted in cracks within the party. Rats with criminal records deserting the ship, and taking refuge in Pak Sarzameen Party are not a good omen. This disintegration could lead to a crisis if and when the mass resignations boasted by Dr. Farooq Sattar come into effect.
Though Imran Khan must be credited in single handily spearheading the Panama Campaign, his party members do not replicate the same motivations and singularity of purpose. Twice they let him down in Senate that resulted in strengthening Nawaz Sharif. This reflects the effectiveness of institutionalism in the party wherein at crucial moments some parliamentarians fly off to a tangent. Therefore, Imran’s single handed opposition to corruption (read PMLN and PPPP) is framed by others to appear as a proxy of the Supreme Court and Military. There is a big segment in Pakistan including educated that believe this.
The reference against Imran Khan’s financial integrity is diagrammatically opposed and fallacious. Unlike Sharifs accused of money laundering from Pakistan, Imran Khan is being put under the axe for bringing finances from abroad to Pakistan. This speaks volumes about the degeneration of political morality in the country. Cynics and critics are therefore yearning and eager to see what preferential treatment (if at all) Supreme Court metes out to Imran Khan in contrast to Nawaz Sharif. This will make a huge propaganda for public perception headlines.
The role of PPPP is dubious. Aitezaz Ahsan has confused the situation on the eve of more constitutional amendments. If PPPP as a token protest abstains, PMLN and Nawaz Sharif stand victorious. It is a typical case of ‘hare hunting with the hounds’. This sudden volte face by Aitezaz cannot be without consent.
After all PPPP and PMLN are signatories to the Charter of Democracy that lays the framework for all cooperation.
So the trails then lead to those who brokered this charter and national reconciliation. USA and UK immediately come into focus.
While UK is a sanctuary of Pakistan’s corrupt politicians and London a second capital of corrupt rulers, it also holds keys to offshore companies, properties and most Altaf Hussain being used against Pakistan. It is the land of Folklore Witches.
USA has its own dominance objectives in the region and Pakistan assertively backed by the armed forces is resisting becoming a pliant vassal state. So the focus then shifts to Civilian superiority (however corrupt and incompetent) over the military. This gels well with the sentiments of PMLN and PPPP against the armed forces, a provision also mentioned in Charter of Democracy.
This consonance between the strategic trajectories of global powers and corrupt politicians of Pakistan provides a space and window to bring anarchy into the country. Anarchy also means framing convenient laws, something PPP and PMLN are already doing. An implication of such anarchy (if it ever materialises) is the credibility of Pakistan’s nuclear capability. The world through United Nations could then justify the logic of de-nuking Pakistan and settling Kashmir to Pakistan chagrin.
This perhaps is one explanation why Nawaz Sharif is becoming so audacious. It seems that during his four weeks stay in London, he was pumped with some elixir to perpetuate his political longevity.
Then there are serious questions related to the federation compounded by 18th Amendment.
There is a distinct treatment by NAB on treatment of accused in Sindh and Punjab. This is creating a polarisation and PPPP propaganda and optics are doing so. PPPP is inasmuch challenging NAB as PMLN.
There are serious differences over census particularly in Sindh. PPPP and MQMP have rejected it outright. Within Sindh, it has created serious crises in urban areas. A mere spark of events could lead to serious ethnic polarisation.
Lastly, what is the oversight judge appointed by Supreme Court doing about accountability? So far most arraignments are held back by delays. This gives a breathing space to Sharifs to unfold their own game plan.
This game plan can be summed up in my article, (My Way nor No Way Nation: 6 August 2016). His game plan is an adaptation by narrowing and distorting the environment until one’s conduct appears adequate to it. His Obsessive Compulsive Symptoms are an exaggerated and neurotic conduct to have his self-confidence reassured every moment by fresh praise and new successes. His dream of motorways, interchanges, flyovers, metro buses and orange trains is insatiable as long as they serve his being in grandeur and in his definition of honesty making quick money.
Why refer to 1971 again and again. Catalan sounds so relevant. By distorting laws and creating perceptions, this is exactly what he is doing. He will not hesitate to use international environments against the armed forces to satisfy his desire of ultimate domination. It will always be ‘No way but my way’.
Like any plan, time is of essence. On the political front, the Model Town Report and timely mass resignations by patriotic legislators could bring an end to this ‘game of thrones’.