Apparently, the introverted and well-guarded structure of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is not as monolithic as perceived by the rest of the world. The unison allegiance to a theocratic regime under its supremo Haibat Ullah Akhunzada is marred by internal conflicts and commotions due to peculiar reasons attached to Afghan society. The governmental structure of Afghanistan has always been a conglomerate of vicious aspirations, beliefs, and vested personal agendas often consequential to political machinations. Afghan Taliban is a complicated network and no different from traditional Afghan fiefdoms and regional influences. The initial euphoria of sticking to an ideological bond has started fading away giving room to internal conflicts based on lust for power and resources. Divisions within the ranks of the Taliban were exposed just after the death of Mullah Omer in 2015 following which Quetta Shura hastily announced Mullah Mansoor as successor of Mullah Omer. The announcement was publicly opposed by key Taliban leadership including Hassan Rehmani. Core fissures engrained in ideology, tribal allegiances, regional connections, and control over resources including the narcotics trade flout the illusion of the Taliban being a cohesive organization. A faction promotes a moderate style of governance while another stays an exponent of hardline theocratic interpretation of religion and is averse to departing from their obdurate stance. There is no evidence that these varying stances are abridged in the foreseeable future.
These internal conflicts encompass multiple fault lines in ideological diversities, variable interpretations of Shariah, tribal and regional allegiances, and Taliban leaders’ personal aspirations for power and resources. Hardliner factions vie for a conservative and introverted model of governance of the 1990s while moderates aspire for an inclusive approach as per the expectations of the rest of the world. The control over resource-rich regions is another reason for the internal strife of the Taliban. With possession and control of these regions, substantial economic leverage is granted to Taliban commanders which facilitates their grip in these areas in maintaining their influence. The control of important supply routes facilitating the movement of weapons and illegal trade becomes a critical factor in internal conflicts. The Taliban bank on these routes to maintain their operations and stronghold in their respective regions. The influence of regional actors and world powers is another factor that plays an instrumental role in augmenting existing discord among various factions of the Afghan Taliban. These external actors seek to support a particular faction to facilitate their opposing agendas and vested interests. Tribal affiliations are another dominating factor that is deeply rooted in Afghan society and it even overpowers strong ideological bonds. It is a known fact that within the Taliban’s ruling structure, tribal dominance has remained a prominent feature. These tribal affiliations supersede loyalty to the overall Taliban leadership. The prominence of Bashir Noorzai in the Taliban network is well known as Noorzai has been financially supporting the network through his business of drugs. After his arrest in the USA, Bashir Noorzai was replaced by General Abdul Raziq Achakzai who was the Chief of Police of Kandahar Province. The drug business has remained a significant source of income for the Taliban regime. Contrary to Fatwas issued by Akhunzada Haibat Ullah for the elimination of opium cultivation, it still remains the source of income of Taliban warlords dominating their respective fiefdoms.
Taliban leader Dawood Muzammil held a prominent place within the Kandhari faction of the Taliban and played a significant role in supporting operations within the Taliban’s network through the drug trade. Prominent Taliban leaders like Ibrahim Sadr, Gul Agha Ishaqzai, and Qayyum Zakir have also been involved in drug trafficking to support the Taliban Network. According to a report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), opium cultivation in Afghanistan witnessed a substantial increase from 32% in 2022 compared to the previous year. The total cultivation area reached a remarkable 233,000 hectares. Alarmingly, the report also highlights the substantial growth in opium income, soaring from $425 million in 2021 to an overwhelming $1.4 billion in 2022, representing a remarkable 330% increase. This amount accounted for approximately 29% of the entire agricultural sector’s value in 2021. The specific economic interests vying for the desire to achieve ascendency within the network have initiated personal rifts among key leaders of the Taliban regime. These internal power scuffles are not always nonviolent and sometimes these struggles lead to deadly infighting. The emergence of Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mullah Yaqoob as the new power players within the Taliban has resulted in an intricate dynamic characterized by a delicate balance between collaboration and eroding trust and behind the scenes, their mutual trust is diminishing as each harbors aspirations of succeeding Hibatullah as the leader of the group.
The Taliban’s activities and movements in Afghanistan have undeviating consequences for Pakistan’s internal security, thus making it vital for Pakistan to closely observe the internal conflicts within the Taliban. Any changes in leadership, internal power struggles, or ideological debates can influence its policy towards and relations with Pakistan. Different factions may adopt distinct approaches to achieve their objectives such as the question of TTP or facilitating peace talks between Pakistan and the TTP. Knowledge about the Afghan Taliban’s internal conflicts can also help identify opportunities for more concrete engagement and influence within the Islamic Emirate.
Omay Aimen
The writer frequently contributes to issues concerning national and regional security, focusing on matters having a critical impact on these milieus. She can be reached at omayaimen333@gmail.com