What has just happened in Dhaka is not surprising. Hasina had to go - one way or the other. Sad, that she had to leave her father’s legacy in such a disgraceful manner. A change that BNP or JI or anti-India elements could not bring about on solid socio-political grounds has been made possible by a few student leaders with the help of social media. To say that the student quota or a couple of protests and crackdowns caused Hasina to hurriedly pack up her bags and flee her country would be an understatement. Fifteen years of continuous repressive measures including the forceful political culling of opposition and political incarcerations aside, the common man had got fed up with a face that would remind them of someone who got them a country but then left it alone at the mercy of time. New checklists demand fresh approaches. Macroeconomic indicators hardly matter when people seriously start thinking of safeguarding their fundamental rights. There is a limit to keep looking at a bland future. People had just got bored…!!!
The LEAs had read the writing on the wall. In any case, no army will kill its own people – beyond of course a certain point. On the other hand, once again, it was proved that no number of curfews and any number of repressive measures could withstand the will of the people, and that a regime change could take place even without the help of a ‘foreign hand’. It was also obvious that a ruler could be forced to flee by an aggrieved but committed segment of society – even without having the blessings of a popular leader.
With a docile President and an unambitious Commander in place, the transition is likely to be smooth. Depending on the vigour and acceptability of the soon-to-be released Khalida Zia, the people of the bruised nation would not have any difficulty to choose their next PM.
This time, the now ‘Shining India’ opted to play safe perhaps in its bid to erase the ‘not-so-good-old-memories’ of ‘helping’ the people of former East Pakistan. There is a possibility that Hasina herself desisted from waving an S.O.S flag in view of India’s expected response. Facing several separatist movements and a host of other issues including its overseas adventurism, therefore, India might have reluctantly agreed only to host its beleaguered ally – but not as a permanent guest. Another reason of non-indulgence in Bangladesh’s internal affairs? There was no pro-Pakistan element involved in the ongoing socio-political game.
Any idea where Ashraf Ghani went in a similar situation? Does anyone remember whether it was Tajikistan or UAE? Is anyone bothered about his whereabouts now? Hence, it does not matter whether Hasina would have gone to Belarus, Norway, Botswana or Nicaragua. Yes, if she would find a shelter in India albeit a temporary one, she would yet again be proving the text of a decades old open secret true. During her debatable reign, Hasina could not remove the pro-India label from her Awami League’s face. Indeed, it was understood that in case of an emergency, there would always be a haven for Hasina waiting in Agartala. No one is talking about the possibility of her returning home from exile, and no one perhaps will be thinking on those lines ever. For the people of Bangladesh, it seems like a permanent adios.
Do not expect any sympathetic messages from anywhere in the world - for Hasina was never one of the favourite political figures in the international arena. In any case, the major powers’ plate is already full, and no one has the time to pay attention to a non-oil producing and strategically unimportant country’s internal affairs.
The excitement in Pakistan may not go beyond recalling history and how mercilessly it plays its hand. Islamabad must respond maturely. In this case, the most measured response would be to stay calm and keep watching how the situation in Dhaka unfolds in the coming weeks. No official statement is needed. Not even a standard phrase like ‘we are looking at the situation with great concern …’. Let us also not rush into making any future ‘plans’ regarding Bangladesh. In international affairs, haste makes absolute waste.
Najm Us Saqib