One has not heard of any official request made to India for guiding Pakistan on the latter’s economic woes. Neither do the US, China or the IMF expect India to propose a viable economic plan for its South Asian arch rival. Nor is India by any means responsible for Pakistan’s future. In fact, history of wars, open animosity and deep-rooted issues between the two neighbours suggest a totally opposite scenario. So, why then would Jaishan¬kar suddenly be concerned about Pakistan’s economic crisis and future? In a recent statement, the Indian Foreign Minister has proffered a recommendation albeit in not-so-many specific terms. In a manner that suits astrologists and soothsayers, Jaishankar feels that Pakistan’s future would be largely determined by its own actions and choices and it is for Islamabad to find a way out of its economic troubles. Vaguely referring to the background of Pakistan’s present acute economic predicament, he opined that ‘nobody reaches a difficult situation suddenly and without cause.’
As the people of India have a soft corner for Sri Lanka and not-so-good opinion about Pakistan, Jaishankar would rather like New Delhi to ‘assist’ Colombo in their hour of distress but certainly not Islamabad as ‘you know what the sentiment is there in the country for Pakistan.’ Jaishankar’s most important remark was on Pak-India relations. Putting any and all hopes of normalization of relations to rest, he observed that ‘our relationship today is not one where we can be directly relevant to that process.’
It means that Pakistan’s political uncertainty and economic crunch is working favourably for India by default. India is winning the battle even without entering into an actual fight. People like Jaishankar are making a mockery of present-day Pakistan’s ‘helplessness’.
It means that Pakistan has lost its erstwhile mojo for India and in the region, Islamabad is not perceived important enough to even consider it ‘relevant’. Neither is there any threat perception from Pakistan in the Indian wargaming room.
It means that PM Modi’s statement on Pakistan being properly ‘fixed’ by him is being considered true by New Delhi. They are taking credit for Pakistan’s economic issues while their efforts to ‘isolate’ Pakistan continue unabated.
It means that India no longer considers Pakistan a worthwhile regional actor particularly in the context of the Afghan conflict. To them, Pakistan’s geo-strategic importance could not play any role in changing the regional political or strategic landscape any more. At best, Pakistan is just a pebble in the shoe.
It means that Pakistan should forget about any ‘favourable’ development on Kashmir or bilateral formal trade. From its actions of August 2019 to violating Pakistan’s territory in all three areas to the accidental firing of a cruise missile, the muted response of world powers has emboldened India. It is then no surprise that New Delhi feels it has carte blanche to venture into any provocative activity. It knows, it will come out of any misadventure in the region unscathed.
It means that India’s enemy in the region is only China. In pursuing its hegemonistic policies in the region, India gives two hoots to Sino-Pak friendship and does not consider it as a counter-measure to its overtures in any manner.
It means that India’s growing role and eco-political influence in the Middle East including its promising relations with Iran are a great source of satisfaction for PM Modi and his government. Hence, Pakistan is irrelevant.
It means that India is fully aware of the existing frictions between Pakistan and the West particularly the US and the ensuing ramifications for the erstwhile major ‘Non-NATO’ strategic ally. On the other hand, being quite satisfied with its strategic partnership with Russia, the Modi-led regime would not wish Moscow to implement any energy-related project to cater for Pakistan’s needs.
Coincidentally, a day after Jaishankar’s tongue-in-cheek statement, PM Sharif approved a package of austerity measures which might save the country around two-hundred billion rupees annually and enable Islamabad to address the worst economic crisis in two-decades. The Prime Minister of Pakistan has decided to open offices at seven-thirty in the morning; not to allot more than one plot to employees of the Government; serve only one dish at all government events; foregoing salaries by all Cabinet Ministers and to travel in economy class without support staff; and, a ban on buying luxury vehicles till June next year etc. How, when and to what extent these measures would bring some reprieve for the country, is anybody’s guess.
What does it mean? It means that the IMF would continue to school Pakistan on how to run the country for a long period of time. Pakistan was warned to avoid reaching the dangerous stage where its debt would require restructuring. Reportedly, the IMF wants Pakistan to ensure the high earners pay taxes. Secondly, the Fund wants Islamabad to give subsidies to the poor if it desired the country to run. Simultaneously, the US-led IMF would insist that the wealthy should not benefit from any subsidies. Under the circumstances, these two ‘simple’ steps seem a near impossibility. Why? The age-old problem. Who will bell the cat and, in this case, why would the cat bell itself? The strategy to circumvent the ‘real demands’ of the IMF through its usual ‘maneuvering tactics’, is apparently not working either. This time, the IMF doesn’t seem amenable to any alternate plan of action by Pakistan.
It means it’s a do or die situation….!!!
While spilling the beans, unintentionally, Jaishankar has done a favour to Pakistan. For once, Islamabad should listen to what New Delhi is saying. ‘Pakistan’s future would be largely determined by its own actions and choices and it is for Islamabad to find a way out of its economic troubles.’ ‘Look at what is being said, not who is saying it.’