As the new government takes over with a lot of questions hanging over its legitimacy, the only way it can silence its detractors is to perform on the economic front. Sadly, with a rather poor showing on economic policies cum vision in its recently concluded PDM stint, the confidence, at least for now, in its ability to deliver remain thin. Given that we are already in the month of March, trust the real litmus test would the kind of budget it sets in a couple of months’ time, which would not only be the key in determining its road map towards Pakistan’s economic stability, but will also be critical to its survival per se.
Regrettably, in recent years our operational management of the economy has been consistently slipping with Pakistani managers invariably ending up working against the natural regional tide, invariably leading to growing disparity between the economic fortunes of Pakistanis and most of their regional neighbours, primarily India & Bangladesh. As one keeps on saying that one does not need to reinvent the wheel, but simply follows the successes that one sees around its comparable neighbourhood.
Only last week the Indian Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, presented the sixth budget of her party’s current tenure and contrary to the expectations of many, with elections round the corner, her government did not waiver from a strict economic vision of the economy always coming first and that dole-outs or favours will be extended that compromise on India’s growth and development. Unlike the drag budget speeches at our end, she finished within an hour with a clear message that India remains on track to enter the club of 3 largest economies in the world. Just to reiterate from my previous piece on the subject that surely one can blame Modi and his allies for all sorts of crimes against humanity and for making a mockery of international rules and regulations, but as far as the Indian economy is concerned, his Sarkar seems to be taking it to the next level.
Without getting into the nitty gritty, let’s try and analyse what the Indian budget mainly contained in broad policy terms, while comparing, where possible, with prevalent realities at home:
- Fiscal consolidation: A clear message to remain committed to the path of fiscal consolidation - in fact improving on the glide path to achieve a fiscal target figure of no more than 4.50% of GDP (gross domestic product) 2025-26.
- Renewing the footprint of development by further enhancing or expanding the private sector’s participation in order to draw operational efficiencies and instil entrepreneurial qualities in the development initiatives. Unlike Pakistan where private sector’s footprint on the economy is shrinking and the country is de-industrialising.
- To consciously bridge the gap between annual revenue projections and real receipts and between laid-out spending with fixed cum inelastic expenditures. This is an exercise to not only be honest to the people in what the government can actually or practically commit to the them, but also an endeavour to come clean and transparent in managing the country’s financial affairs; something that will go a long way in improving the country’s image and repute as an ethical and reliable financial player in the international community. Now surely, we could do with some introspection on these lines here in Pakistan as well.
- Adopting the assumptions, forecasts and projections on India’s economic growth those of external agencies and autonomous bodies, mainly IMF and the World Bank from the outside and the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) from the inside, instead of touting the government’s own homegrown figures. This again would go a long way in demonstrating an arms-length strategy on accurately gauging India’s real potential for growth in the coming year along with lending global credence to the budgeted lay outs. In addition, it would in advance lay a very strong ground for any financing needs that may arise over the next twelve months.
- Ensure that private sector’s capital spending continues to both, out-spend and out-pace government’s capital spending. Ironically, the opposite is true at home.
To conclude, whatever may be the case, the reality is that unless we here at home also somehow can ensure to converge transparency, fiscal prudence and political economic vision across all parties by putting the country first, sustainable, meaningful and equitable growth in Pakistan will remain elusive!
Dr Kamal Monnoo
The writer is an entrepreneur and economic analyst. Email: kamal.monnoo@gmail.com