CPI inflation continues to witness upward trend

KARACHI - The year-on-year based Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate in the federal and provincial capitals like Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad exhibited a slight decline as stood at 11.3 percent, 9.0 percent and 10.4 percent respectively in the month of March 2011 over the same month of last year. However, the rate of CPI inflation in other capital cities including Peshawar and Quetta remained higher, reaching 13.7 percent and 12.9 percent compared with 12.0 per cent and 11.4 percent during the corresponding month of previous year. According to the city-wise inflation data released by the SBP here on Thursday, overall CPI inflation (YoY) rate in the five major cities continued to witness an upward trend as increased to 12.9 percent during March 2011 from 11.4 percent in March 2010. The SBP data showed that On MoM basis, two big cities (Lahore and Peshawar) observed higher than overall (MoM) inflation. Twenty three out of 35 cities recorded higher inflation than overall inflation (YoY), while the remaining 12 cities registered lower than average inflation during March 2011. The highest inflation (YoY) was recorded in Bahawalnagar at 18.2 percent, while Lahore registered the lowest inflation (YoY) at 9.0 percent, the data said. The highest food inflation (YoY) was 23.1 percent in Kunri and lowest of 11.6 percent was in Lahore. Bahawalnagar registered the highest non-food inflation at 16.9 percent, while lowest non-food inflation of 4.6 percent was observed in Islamabad, it added. According to the SBP figures, inflationary pressures strengthened during March 2011, as reflected by all price indices. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose to 13.2 percent on YoY basis in the month under review after easing a little during the last three months (December-February FY11). Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation also jumped to 25.4 percent (YoY) in March 2011 from 24.4 percent in the preceding month. Similarly, SPI inflation (YoY) also increased slightly from 16.2 percent in the previous month to 16.3 percent. Several factors contributed to the resurge in inflation during March 2011, such as passing on the impact of rising international oil prices to the domestic consumers, and upward adjustment in electricity tariffs, it revealed. Like headline inflation, core inflation also trended upward during the month. Core inflation (YoY) measured by 20 per cent trimmed mean increased by 0.2 percentage points during March 2011 as against 0.5 percent decrease in the previous month. Similarly, NFNE (another core inflation measure) soared by 0.3 percentage points during the month as against a decline of 0.2 percentage points in the preceding month, the data showed. On MoM basis, food prices increased during the month by 2.0 percent compared to a decline of 2.1 percent last month whereas non-food prices increased by 1.0 percent in March 2011, compared to 0.5 percent in February 2011, it stated. According to the data, weighted contribution to overall CPI inflation (YoY) remained unchanged from the previous month at 62.1 percent and 37.9 percent respectively. However, the share of food inflation in overall CPI inflation during the month was much higher when looked against the corresponding month last year. Resultantly, the (weighted) contribution of non-food inflation during March 2011 to overall inflation was (11.6 percentage points) less than what was experienced in March 2010. It also mentioned that CPI food inflation on YoY basis increased slightly from 17.7 percent in February 2011 to 18.0 percent during March 2011. On MoM basis, food prices increased during the month by 2.0 percent compared to a decline of 2.1 percent last month. Out of the top ten commodities contributing to overall CPI inflation (YoY), eight1 were from the food group, having a weighted contribution of 45.2 percent in overall inflation. Of these eight items, three2 alone contributed 46.7 percent to CPI food (YoY) inflation.