Inflation, poverty hamper economic transformation

KARACHI - A higher GDP growth rate, building of foreign exchange reserves, accelerated stock market index and record growth in foreign investment during last regime in Pakistan have not been transformed in the living standard of a common man. The simultaneous improvement in macroeconomic indicators and accelerated inflation and poverty indicate obstacles in the transformation mechanism. A little trickle down effect was observed during this macroeconomic growth regime but the macroeconomic growth had not transformed into poverty reduction in the past regime of financial expansion. This was stated in the first Quarterly Economic Review of the Country of FPCCI while released on Wednesday during launching ceremony at Federation House. State Bank's of Pakistan former Governor and current Director IBA Dr. Ishrat Hussain inaugurated the quarterly economic review of FPCCI. He said that there was lack of research phenomenon in our country as all sects of society rely on government's reports and statistics about the economy. He further said that war stricken country Vietnam's economy tremendously increased to record as its export exceeded to $48 billion dollars in last while Pakistan's exports still stand at $19 billion dollars. "If Saudi Arabia does not extend adequate financial help, then there was no other way but to accept the tough conditions of IM", he said and admitted that during first tenure as Governor of SBP, the then government also accepted tough conditions of IMF but than took right decision to reform our economy which led in getting rid from the bowl of IMF. The economic review further said that the macroeconomic indicators have been showing the significant improvement in the economy of Pakistan in the recent past regime. But the painful situation is that the effects of macroeconomic growth had not been transferred to the lower income segment of the society. The economists agreed that increasing income and wealth inequalities are usual phenomena at the time of take off stage of economic growth. The report pointed out that the increasing inflation because of excess unplanned demand of the commodities is also a temporary phenomenon of high-speed economic growth. However, the absolute poverty can be avoided through economic policies. Meanwhile, President FPCCI Tanvir Shaikh in his welcome address said, being the representative body of the industrial segment of the country, FPCCI feels its responsibility to recommend the measures for overall economic growth, stability and improvement in the socio-economic indicators. This is the reason to cover this issue of economic and social importance in the inaugural issue of the FPCCI Economic Review. He vowed that FPCCI would regularly release economic review of the country on quarterly and annual basis. This study covers three important aspects of the socio-economic changes in Pakistan in the recent past. First it describes the macroeconomic growth in the different political regimes. Second aspect of the study is to assess the poverty levels in Pakistan. It also discusses the estimation criteria and types of the poverty. Although this study is mainly concerned with absolute poverty, however, the types of absolute poverty by their origination were-also covered. In this part, we have compared the poverty in Pakistan with the selected countries and trends over the period have also been shown. Report said, on the basis of socio-economic evidences we can identify two major causes of simultaneous increase in absolute poverty and macroeconomic growth: The absolute poverty is calculated on the basis of household income and prices of essential commodities. The double-digit inflation in consumer prices shifted many households from above to below side of the poverty line. There are sufficient evidences to believe that privatisation mechanism (not policies), down sizing in the industries because of stiff competition in the free trade regime, and the application of contemporary management styles including use of information technology without giving fair learning opportunities to old employees compelled them to leave the jobs or to work in underpaid environment. This condition ultimately led the reduction in incomes. The reduction in households' incomes and increasing inflation are transformed in the increasing poverty, and many households have been shifted at below the poverty line. The consumer oriented expansionary monetary' policy artificially increased the purchasing power of the people, which ultimately led the demand-pull inflation in the economy. This demand-pull inflation affected the lower income class badly, report disclosed. FPCCI report pointed out that the most significant reason responsible for the incompletion of trickle down chain was the blockage of money at middle class stage. Incomes of those middle classers increased significantly who have been helping the higher income groups to generate money in a business boom situation. This boom was clearly observable in the stock market; export trade, banking, cement, real estate, construction and services sector. The middle class professionals and services providers have adopted the contemporary tools to update their professional skills, so changes in the economic and technological environment have been favouring them. They have succeeded to get their due share from the higher income classers, but they have failed to transfer this share to the lower income segment of the economy.

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