War is not new to the oil-rich Middle Eastern region. The fear of an all-out modern-day warfare is. The talk of a war is in the air, but strangely, hardly anyone is trying to forestall it!
The fact that the number of casualties in Iran’s attack could not even match the number of missiles launched by Iran tells us it did not want war. It was a well-measured move, not necessarily aimed at creating havoc at the other end. Iran was forced to act in ‘self-defence’ as Israel had ‘crossed the red line’ by assassinating Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah. Respecting its people’s pride and sentiments, Iran’s message to Israel and the world has been received loud and clear. In safeguarding its national interest, or if push comes to shove, it will attack directly, and to that end, its plans are in place. Iran does not want war, but the message is clear: Israel is not untouchable. Israel’s retaliation will be responded to proportionately. One more thing: additional sanctions are not a threat. Iran has diligently calculated the involved risks. Lastly, if Israel or its friends attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran will be all in. No more diplomatic nonsense from now onwards!
Between the devil and the deep blue sea, Iran has chosen the former. The cherished goal of fixing Iran, its cohorts, and attacking its nuclear facilities is right in front of Iran’s enemies to achieve. Indeed, Iran has provided them with a God-given opportunity they would not like to miss. However, the obvious ramifications of a head-on collision might enable better sense to prevail. The most worrisome question for the US and its allies would be: how to restrict this war only to the region? Nevertheless, Iran will be ‘punished’ for taking the bull by the horns – this time openly and directly. The absence of any broad-based inter-state military alliance has rendered forums like the OIC, Arab League, or GCC as mere formalities. A possible repeat of the Arab Spring in the region further compounds security issues. The GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are looking for reliable security partners, particularly after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Threatened by opposing forces from within and without, the primary focus of every country in the region is on safeguarding its own national interest.
The last few years have seen a sea change in the region, with Qatar hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the UAE hosting COP 28 after recognising Israel, and Saudi Arabia hosting the Global AI Summit. On the other hand, the role of religion is gradually diminishing as the Mahabharata is being translated into Arabic. It is then no surprise that the war in Gaza remains an issue between Hamas and Israel or, from a distance, between Iran and Israel. So much so that the region has taken Iran’s recent missile attack on Israel as a routine matter. Given the nature of its uncertain relations with the Middle Eastern countries, including Türkiye, Iran would be all alone even if the ongoing exchange of missiles turns into an all-out war. The upcoming elections may force Washington to adopt a measured response. As for China and Russia – their plates are already full.
Sadly, the world’s focus remains on peripheries. For instance, there are two distinct points of view over the Israel-US nexus. One reflects the idea that Israel is playing into the hands of the US in furthering the interests of the latter, particularly in the Middle East. Others believe it is the other way round, and Washington somehow feels duty-bound to stand by Tel Aviv every step of the way. Both arguments might hold some water and might seem true as well. However, in this chicken-and-egg debate, the think tanks tend to lose focus on the centre. Even if both viewpoints are one hundred percent true or false, or the reality lies somewhere in between, does it really matter?
What matters is the remaining populace of Gaza, which has been rendered hopeless. The missing practical steps for a two-state solution to the Middle Eastern rigmarole? What matters is the fact that humanity is facing the possibility of a Third World War; the UN Secretary-General has been declared a persona non grata by Israel, yet the pigeon has its eyes firmly closed, imagining there is no cat in the room. Technically, the world is resisting the changes coming its way. Meanwhile, the reverberations emanating from India, Russia, and Israel of Akhand Bharat, the Soviet Union, and Greater Israel, respectively, keep knocking at the doors of the world’s conscience.
Would there be a change in US policy on the Middle East once a new president enters the White House? The answer is no. Those who watched the presidential debate must have gathered that already. The way of dealing with issues might vary, but neither Harris nor Trump would abandon Israel. Besides forcing Israel to grow, the US is likely to keep controlling loyalties in favour of the former. On the other hand, the ‘friends’ of Iran and Palestine will continue taking guidance from passion rather than wisdom. In fact, once the dust settles, the Abraham Accords may once again be under discussion, and soon a meeting between Washington and Riyadh will be arranged for a possible recognition of a ‘repenting’ Israel. For all practical purposes, Middle Eastern geopolitics is likely to return to where it was before 7 October 2023. Gaza will be rebuilt as a ‘Tent City’ with funds pouring in from regional powers.
In the unlikely event of a long-drawn Middle Eastern warfare, a parliament of owls and a wake of vultures would be watching a small pride of lions fighting with a menacing crackle of hyenas. The result will be obvious. Iran knows it. Israel knows it. The region knows it. The world knows it. Given the complex and yet-to-be-tested modern-day warfare, coupled with the devastating ability of the latest long-range nuclear missiles, hybrid and proxy wars are likely to continue, with ‘breaking news’ pouring in frequently. Hopefully, the crackle of hyenas recalls what Bertrand Russell once observed: “War does not determine who is right – only who is left.”
Najm us Saqib
The writer is a former Ambassador of Pakistan and author of eight books in three languages. He can be reached at najmussaqib1960@msn.com