A global Greek tragedy

Imtiaz Rafi Butt The world witnessed Greeces surrender to the IMF recently, and the public blowback in the form of protests and riots, which even led to the deaths of three people. Austerity measures are never popular in any country. However, given the state of the global economy, countries on the brink of default have little choice, except to bow to the conditions of their creditors. The real tragedy for Greece is that even after the collective loans, it had to borrow (accumulating to somewhere in the vicinity of $400 billion) and suffering from the disastrous effects of unemployment, economic decline, political chaos, public outrage and having its financial credibility relegated to junk status; Greeces government is predicted to run out of money somewhere around September. A default is something the euro zone economies cannot allow to happen, as it will take many other fragile economies like Portugal, Italy and Spain down with it, while simultaneously damaging stronger economies like France and Germany. All that might seem like a European problem, but in today's globalised economy there is always a catch. The economic juggernaut of our times, the United States of America, is shockingly in a similar position as Greece - only the figures are manifold greater. According to a recent report on job creation, the US economic recovery is non-existent. The economy only gained a meagre number of new jobs created compared to its capability to create hundreds of thousands of jobs a month had it been in recovery. The drama ensuing between President Barack Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner on raising the current US debt ceiling from $14 trillion or reduce the government deficit has not helped financial markets around the world either. There are no easy answers. Any effect on consumer demand in the US directly hurts many other global economies, particularly China that already has a property bubble and a major inflation problem to deal with. The slowing of Chinese economy will further damage many developing economies, who are increasingly dependent on Chinese demand for raw materials. On the financial side of things, returning to the Greek situation. In a financial perspective, the problem appears unsolvable. Greece is going back to the loan sharks of the IMF for further debt and if it tanks, then it will damage all of its European creditors. While across the Atlantic, the US banks will suffer gravely due to their outlandish exposure to Europe, as they have too much financial stake in it and would inevitably panic, further exacerbating the upcoming financial crises. The proposed solutions to Greece's problem have even included the concept of an 'orderly default in which its economy will be isolated away from the Euro, defaults and reintroduces its national currency, the drachma at a debased rate thus minimising the damage to other euro zone economies. Even this unprecedented solution needs to be found expeditiously before time runs out. The more dependent and connected a country is on the global economic system, the worst the impact will be felt in this new wave of financial chaos. While sitting in Pakistan with its own economic problems, and watching this global catastrophe unfold, at least one feels safer in the sense that we were never that connected to suffer that much anyway The writer is Chairman, Jinnah Rafi Foundation, and Honorary Consul for Malaysia.

ePaper - Nawaiwaqt