The nuclear threat

WHILE fears of a nuclear holocaust in the subcontinent, occasionally expressed by political observers, could be dismissed as speculative in nature, it would be sheer foolhardiness to treat, with the same indifference, Foreign Secretary Salman Bashirs warning that New Delhi was preparing for an atomic war. His recent visit to India, interacrtion with its leadership and his diplomatic training would have persuaded him to reach such a scary conclusion. Besides, Indias military and political high command has not been found wanting in adopting a threatening tone when accusing Pakistan on the flimsiest charges. Mr Bashirs observation would also immediately call to mind the idea of a limited nuclear war, heard from across the border some time back. However, the Indians would be well advised to ponder over the implications of this thesis. The world has radically changed since the Americans ruthlessly and needlessly bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki out of existence. Before voicing the 'limited-nuclear-war concept, had they consulted the US their friend, the worlds mightiest nation in terms of military muscle, and indeed nuclear muscle, whether it would at this time of nuclear spread, dare risk using an atomic weapon against a country even suspected of having the bomb and the delivery capability, they might have had sobering second thoughts. Indias aggressive posture has come more in evidence since it gained global recognition for its growing economic strength and, more particularly, since the Americans began to look with favour on it because of economic and commercial advantages and perceived strategic compulsions. The US has already begun to draw the economic dividend out of the rising needs for Western goods of the Indian increasing middle classes, now well over 200 million. The expanding commercial relations in the various fields, particulary through the sale of nuclear equipment and knowhow, hold the prospects of additional benefits. However, the understanding that India could play an important role in helping stave off the Chinese threat to the Americans unrivalled global dominance would, more likely, turn out to be a pie in the sky than a realistic prospect. It would, undoubtedly, be suicidal for India to incur Beijings hostility that this posture would provoke. And the recent boast of General Deepak Kumar that India could defeat both China and Pakistan in a matter of hours is no more than a megalomaniac wish that he could have uttered to gladden the hearts of hawks in the US administration. Yet the alarming pugnaciousness that is latent in the Generals threat could not be viewed with equanimity, either in Beijing or in Islamabad. After all, one witnesses people able to fulfil their death wish every day. And nations have not been unknown for entertaining suidical tendencies in the annals of history. Anyway, whatever the real intentions of the Indians about the nuclear threat, there is no room for relaxation. Not only should Pakistan be well prepared for such an eventuality but also take the international community in confidence about its apprehensions.

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