Uncertainty regarding the success of the Afghan peace deal looms large considering the recent uptick in violence. Yesterday’s attack on the ceremony in Kabul marking the death anniversary of Abdul Ali Mazari resulted in the killing of at least 27 and injuring 30 people. Although the Taliban have denied responsibility for the attack, there is no denying that the ceasefire has broken down in several parts of the country.
Right after signing of the deal with the US, the militant group resumed its operations against the government instalments and forces. According to the Afghan interior ministry, the Taliban had carried out 30 attacks over 24 hours.
The recent surge in attacks reflects the group’s strategy. The insurgent group thinks that violence will give them an upper hand in negotiating power with other Afghan stakeholders in general and the current government in particular.
However, this is a dangerous gambit. One thing that the group is not considering is the mercurial nature of US President Donald Trump. He will let things unaccounted for only till the elections. If he gets re-elected, he can call off the deal anytime if the Taliban do not abide by the terms of the agreement.
It is entirely possible that the attack in Kabul could have been carried out by a multitude of different armed groups that hold power in a weapon inundated Afghanistan or seek to spoil the peace. With the future of the country and the wider power sharing agreement in contention, other armed groups – terrorists, foreign funded operatives, and regional rulers – all are jockeying for position. There is no reason they would not utilize violence like the Taliban did, considering the success of the strategy.
The Taliban need to understand that deploying violence against the Afghan government can backfire. If one believes what the Taliban insist on, i.e., denying their role in the attack, then it has backfired already. Miscreants and other foreign-sponsored groups have already taken up the task of spoiling the deal of the US withdrawal.
