One visible trend after the first phase of local government elections is, inter alia, the resistance of the Punjab and Sindh electorate to change their old loyalties. The voters may not be able to decide to rebel too early and too quickly. Predominantly, Punjab-based PML-N sweeps in Punjab and what used to be once ‘chaaro soubon ki zanjeer’ Peoples’ Party has been restricted to its stronghold only: rural Sindh.
So nothing extraordinary happened in the first phase. No breakthroughs could be seen in favor of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. No inroads into the strongholds of PML-N and PPP. Besides a few upsets, PTI could not live up to its claim of being a strong contender with the common man proclaimed to be its vote bank. Hence, the resignation of PTI Lahore organizer. Phase two and phase three are also unlikely to bring about any different result.
What does it mean for PTI? Massive rigging in all twelve districts of Punjab and eight districts of Sindh? Low voter turnout? Parochial inclinations of the voters in general? Or voters are not educated enough to see the ever-clear commission mafia behind ruthless development of the PML-N regime? Among other questions, these are the questions the PTI folk may be asking themselves in their current introspection phase right.
Besides the current tug of war and politics of numbers, there is one thing noteworthy. What needs to be noted is the fact that there is no such party with its vote bank across the provinces. Arguably there are only regional parties left with their presence only in a particular province or region. Not only that, even in the specific provinces voter preferences are generally aligned along the lines of ‘biraadri’, kith and kin, or to a lesser extent the local issues. In other words, today there is no party who can confidently claim to spearhead the project of national integration in the Pakistani federation with its vote bank in all the federating units. The federating units have been fragmented in this sense as indicated by the regional voter preferences.
Plurality and diversity are good but there has to be a political force connecting all the federating units, holding them together. We may have a number of nationalist leaders, what we don’t have is a civilian national leader. Ideally, a legitimate and representative prime minister popular not only in Punjab but also in Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit Baltistan, Balochsitan, Islamabad, FATA, and Kashmir should make a good leader. Otherwise, a Punjabi prime minister, for instance, should take on board all the federating units with due attention towards their respective regional issues. Urgency of the need for a civilian national leader cannot be emphasized more. In any event, what further complicates the equation is the availability of its universally acclaimed military counterpart. So a united civilian front led by a national leader is required in this sense as well. The ongoing counterterrorism operations further increase its urgency. Any vacuum from civilian side of the things compromises the balance of civil-military equation and the national integration project.
Taking this point further, we see that Pakistani society is fragmented along the lines of ethnicity, sect, caste, language, regional issues etc. Technically, a party winning majority of seats from Punjab, with a little coalition with other parties, in general elections would form the government in Islamabad. However, the “Regionalization” of political parties should ring alarm bells as far as inter-provincial harmony and national integration are concerned. Now that local government elections are telling that almost every political party is restricted only to a particular province and have failed to gather support from the other provinces, these parties should ask themselves this question: “Why have we failed to gather public support from other provinces and how do we move on to the cause of national interest from regional interests?”
Not only conspiracy theorists but also some rational people would convince us that there are a number of centrifugal forces at play in Pakistan both from inside and outside. So keeping that in mind, national integration and inter-provincial harmony is essential before these centrifugal forces lure the disillusioned regional political parties and pressure groups into launching a threatening upheaval or a secessionist movement.