The Chief of Army Staff’s visit to Russia on October 3 corresponds with the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Viktorovich, visit to Pakistan for bilateral consultation on the same day. Both these visits are important not only in removing the apprehensions caused by the cancellation of Mr Putin’s visit to Pakistan, but also creating the much needed impression that Russia and Pakistan are determined to take forward their mutual relationship, despite years of neglect in the past, for the collective benefit of both the countries as well as the region. Economic cooperation, peace and stability in the region seem to be the two vital areas in which both the States have agreed to cooperate.
When 200 years ago the Prussian military theorist Karl Von Clausewitz called war ‘a continuation of politics’ he wouldn’t have thought that use of military force would one day be considered as ‘failure of politics’. There is no doubt that diplomacy remains the leading instrument of any democratic State’s policy and military actions result only after politics and diplomacy fails, but for Pakistan and the kind of challenges it faces military preparedness and diplomacy both will remain the vital ‘twin tools’ to take it out of the security dilemma it faces. ‘Who leads the country affairs?’ may be a relevant question but should it be asked when the gradual transformation from the military security ownership of the State to the Civilian democratic ownership is under progress? It is good that Pakistan’s relationship with Russia begins simultaneously on both fronts; military to military and diplomatic. This method perfectly suits the growing challenges Pakistan faces.
Russia and Pakistan both are concerned with the likely US strategy to manage the post 2014 stability in Afghanistan which has definite implications for both the countries. The manning of military bases by US may help improve security and shape the Afghan future, but it may as well draw military actions from militant groups that may continue to refuse to accept the presence of foreign troops on Afghan soil. Anyhow, any scenario in which the military presence of US in Afghanistan is weak will mean return to the Afghanistan of 1990’s. The consequences of which will have to be borne both by Russia and Pakistan.
Russia does not want proliferation of conflict on its southern periphery. These conflicts may not be the external threats to Russia’s existence but Russia cannot afford to stay aloof from any developing conflicts especially when it has the military power and muscle to manage and control these conflicts in the region.
Military force in the context of a ‘total or conventional war’ might rarely have to be used to prevent, or worse, put an end to such conflicts but its preparedness and the threat to use it will continue to guide and direct the behavior of the non state actors in Afghanistan. For such a threat to remain meaningful, it is important that both Russian and Pakistan along with the participation of Afghanistan and Central Asian States like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan should jointly coordinate their actions for mutual benefits.
The IMU has declared a jihad against the government of Uzbekistan with its ultimate goal being to overthrow the government and establishing an Islamic State. This makes them the ‘ideological brothers’ of Taliban. Attacks planned and executed by IMU from Afghanistan’s territory on Uzbekistan in the North together with military operations being carried out by Taliban’s in the South is a security dilemma that may warrant the attention of all who are looking at taking measures to create a stable and peaceful Afghanistan. The defensive and offensive actions as well as the likely restrictions that can be imposed to control the movements of the militants on the north and south borders of Afghanistan will remain as the most important challenge.
Moscow regards Nato’s superior strength in conventional forces as the external threat to Russia. Any US plans to occupy military bases in Afghanistan will not be welcomed by Russians. The strategic cooperation agreement that President Obama signed on May 1, 2012 with Afghanistan committed United States willingness to retain a military presence in the country until 2024. With what force, and by occupying how many military bases in Afghanistan, no one is clear, but what seems to be clear is that the growing Russian-Pakistani military and diplomatic cooperation may just be the outcome of the realization by Russia and Pakistan to build pressure on the US to leave the region and leave the policing of the security in the region to the regional stakeholders. This is a very interesting twist in the ‘new great game’ with hopefully positive outcome for Pakistan.
MUHAMMAD ALI  EHSAN,
Karachi, October 2.