Imran Malik The US-led West has implemented duplicitous, inconsistent and self-serving policies, while dealing with the nuclear ambitions of various countries and regions. In the Asian context, for instance, Israel and India have a carte blanche, singular exemptions, privileges and exclusive access to sensitive fissile technologies and materials. Whereas lesser Asians like Iraq, Pakistan, Iran and North Korea have been attacked, sanctioned, censured and coerced - for precisely the same crimes, i.e. their nuclear programmes Selective morality, a great sage once said, is worse than no morality at all Pakistans nuclear programme is in direct conflict with the USAs geostrategic view of the world, the South Central Asian Region (SCAR) and the Greater Middle East Region (GMER). A deliberate international effort of coordinated internal and external manoeuvres is in operation to shape our domestic and regional geopolitical and geostrategic environments for the specific purpose of defanging Pakistan. The threats to Pakistans nuclear programme are manifold. The direct threats manifest themselves in a physical manner - acquisition or removal or destruction of assets. The indirect threats emanate in the geopolitical realms and seek the elimination or control of our nuclear assets through specific international regimes and other intangible measures. Direct threats: The possibility of militants taking over our government and thus control of our nuclear assets can be disregarded, as they do not have the capacity or staying power to do so, nor are we ready to accept their dogmatic and extremist doctrines. Most unlikely. Terrorist groups might attack and infiltrate into one or more storage sites and snatch a nuclear device or radioactive material. The security measures at such sites are strong and multilayered limiting their chances of success. Possible, least likely. The spiriting away of a nuclear warhead or radioactive material by terrorists with the help of supposedly rogue elements among the security personnel. It would necessitate the presence and connivance of a reasonable number of conspirators at a given time and site. Such groups would be hard to hide and extricate. Possible, most unlikely. The UN sanctioned (?) Western forces (in collaboration with India and Israel) physically airdropping troops at all our sites simultaneously, taking over custody and control of our installations, warheads and their delivery systems. It will be a massive strategic manoeuvre of multinational air and special operations forces over a large area. Such ingresses into our air and ground spaces would invariably instigate a total war - inviting equally massive and violent responses inflicting heavy losses on the intruders. And the conflict could easily spiral into uncontrolled dimensions with Pakistan promptly threatening the Western strategic interests in the SCAR and GMER. This threat (balance of terror) will be the biggest deterrent for such a quixotic adventure. Possible, most unlikely. The attempts at physical destruction of our assets through attacks by UAVs, strategic bombers, ballistic or cruise missiles. Our nuclear installations are expected to be able to absorb such strikes, which if successful carry the risk of uncontrolled emission of nuclear radiations - the onus for which would lie with the aggressors. Possible, most unlikely. Indirect Threats: The US-led West would get a pliable UNSC to authorise a resolution to take all necessary steps and actions to secure Pakistans nuclear assets in toto. Pakistan might be required to either place its nuclear installations and assets under an international force for dismantling and safe disposal or cap, rollback and dismantle the programme itself under the supervision of a UN led international force or committee. Possible, likely. Through an imposed or implanted, self-seeking, incompetent and pliant government Pakistan would be destabilised and brought to economic ruin through planned misgovernance. Once complete basket-case status has been managed, Pakistan will be dealt a fait accompli, given a Hobsons choice - economic survival or its nuclear programme? Possible. A common clause in all contingencies will be coordinated clandestine operations by a large number of CIA contractors or operatives (Blackwater, Xe) in cahoots with their local agents in support of any combination of direct or indirect threats. Pakistans refusal to submit will attract debilitating economic sanctions and the threats of a UN sanctioned invasion by a multinational expeditionary force. The exterior manoeuvre will further ensure our diplomatic isolation and the massing of Afghan and Indian troops on both borders. Simultaneously, the interior manoeuvre will provoke devastating secessionist, sectarian and political upheavals, law and order situations and violent terrorist activities against the armed forces and nuclear installations. Bankrupt, flabbergasted and trapped in a crippling pincer movement (internal-external manoeuvres), the Pakistani government of the day will then be coerced to negotiate from an unwinnable position of abject weakness. Thus, a combination of direct and indirect threats and supporting operations by foreign sleuths or agents could potentially actualise the defanging of an economically devastated Pakistan It is for us to thwart this existential threat with an aggressive whole of Government National Security Policy. Well coordinated and coherent operational plans must ensue therefrom covering all contingencies and more. We must secure our strategic organisations and their manpower against foreign subterfuge and ingress. We must bring sanity to our economic and political dimensions immediately. We must launch a dynamic diplomatic offensive targeting all major capitals of the world reassuring them and moulding international opinion in our favour. It will be strategically imperative for us to secure Chinese guarantees against any punitive United Nations Security Council resolution(s) against us. Our national media must be mobilised to negate the Western propaganda and to rebuild national morale and resolve. We must find a nationalist leader, who gives us hope, motivates, inspires and leads us out of this apparent cul-de-sac. A defanged Pakistan will invariably draw China across the Himalayan barriers to irreversibly impact the dynamics of the imbalanced SCARs geopolitics The writer is a retired brigadier, former defence attache of Pakistan in Australia/New Zealand and a defence analyst. Email: im_k@hotmail.com