Dr Kamal Monnoo It is only when you spend an extended period of time in the Far East that you realise how much China has grown in stature over the last few years and how in comparison the US image has taken a dent Business leaders and finance experts from all over the world, who gathered here in Kuala Lumpur over the long independence day weekend conference organised by the government on the subject Another World Recession, offered a somewhat downbeat assessment of the global economy. Several out of them predicted yet another recession due to a calamitous cocktail of sluggish growth, Eurozone dysfunction, and the general global financial markets volatility. The years events - from natural disasters and violent uprisings to fears of debt defaults - have not only sent shockwaves through the financial world, but have also caused a slump in confidence among consumers and industry. There is a significant probability of a double-dip recession, pronounced the New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, who is also known as 'Dr Doom in the academic community. Professor Roubini, as we know, successfully predicted the 2008 crash at a time when almost everyone else was revelling in the boom mode. Almost all speakers at the conference agreed that while perhaps some emerging economies and a few countries in northern Europe would do fine, the US, on the other hand, will surely continue struggling. According to the Harvard Universitys professor, Martin Feldstein, who is also a member of the President Obamas Economic Advisory Board, the numbers being seen recently for the US on manufacturing, on construction, on consumers sentiment reveal that the odds have grown much greater that it will continue to decline and will most likely enter a 'formal recession before the end of this year. Economists mostly blamed the unexpected events of 2011 like the Arab Spring for fuelling oil prices, the turmoil in Greece spreading through Europe, the Japanese natural disasters upsetting global supply chains; for, in effect, they have compounded the economic challenges, which emerged from the financial meltdown witnessed by the world back in 2008. Not surprisingly, there appeared to be a consensus among the experts that visionary leadership that can drag the world out of its present economic danger can only come from China At a time when the West is going through an acute financial crisis and Chinas rise appears to be accelerating, to help the West and also itself, the US needs to show self-restraint and ensure that its relations with China remain stable. Already President Barack Obamas recent meeting with the Dalai Lama has not gone down well with Beijing and if the US does not soon announce a rejection of Taiwans request for advanced F-16 jetfighters, China would feel incensed. The US, which is still recovering from the implications of a last-minute agreement to raise the debt ceiling and the loss of its triple-A credit rating for the first time, will also need to reassure the Chinese that it has never defaulted and will never default and, therefore, Chinas American investments are safe. China, in the meantime, is rightly nervous about the financial exposure it enjoys with the US Treasury and its true sentiments can be gauged by the following official statements issued by its Ministry of Finance: The day after Standard & Poors (S&P) announcement of the historic downgrade, the official Xinhua candidly asserted that, (a). the US must address its chronic debt problems; (b). the days when the debt-ridden Uncle Sam could leisurely squander unlimited overseas borrowing appeared to be numbered; and (c). China, the largest creditor of the worlds sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States to address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of Chinas dollar assets. In fact, the Chinese have gone so far as to call for the printing of the US dollars to be supervised internationally. Their sentiments are quite understandable. The US has avoided bankruptcy by a hairs breadth, but the threat of insolvency remains real. And American politicians are giving democracy a bad name by their squabbling. Instead of working together to extricate the country from its dire problems, they are focused on their own short-term gains (sounds familiar, I suppose) To many who are increasingly becoming sceptical about the efficiencies of a Western democratic model, the debt crisis has exposed the defects, rather than advantages of the Western tit-for-tat democratic system. A political system, which until now has been touted as the most advanced form of governance in human history, has suddenly been found wanting, inefficient and rather powerless in the face of economic problems that the US and Europe are facing now. Ironically, basic common sense has been coming from the Chinese quarters. They have openly advised the so-called developed world to substantially cut their gigantic military expenditures and bloated social welfare costs. Failing which, the Chinese warn that there would be further credit rating cuts that would roil the global financial markets even more - mind you the Chinese credit rating agencies, which in their own right are fast gaining credibility, have downgraded the US credit rating even lower than what has been done by S&P. Hopefully, the Western governments will also arrive at the same conclusion, sooner than later. It is simply irrational to have launched recent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and, at the same time, reducing governments income by cutting rather than raising taxes. On the other hand, the Chinese have risen so rapidly over the last decade because of the sense of national revival with which the people have been imbued, after an eclipse of a century and a half. It is time for the rest of the world to learn from the Chinese example by putting economic revitalisation above political quarrels. The writer is an entrepreneur and economic analyst. Email: kamalmannoo@hotmail.com