Brigadier (R) Nadir Mir
Global Geopolitics is in turmoil. The world is entering the Era of Non Polar World. A theme predicted in my book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ (2013), also later published an article in The Nation, ‘Topsy Turvy World’.
Non Polar simply means no State Actor or Alliance completely Dominates the Globe. This is the interim Non Polar Era, before a Future Multi Polar Era (meaning multiple powers dominate the world or spheres).
‘USA is Globally Pre Eminent but not Predominant’ (Geopolitik Pakistan)
USA: The Established Sole Global Power faces multiple challenges. With American Dominance fading Global Peace is its best option. Still lobbies in USA do not accept the Non Polar Era and cling onto the Unipolar Era (which lasted from 1991 Soviet downfall to 2014 - China - USA purchase parity.) The Chinese OBOR/CPEC and Russian Eurasia Project are Alternatives to US Dominance. The Dollar Monopoly was challenged by Hitler, Saddam, Gaddafi and others (all bad guys) and come to grief.
Today Eurasia - the Euro - Asian Geopolitical Continent is Geo Economically being integrated by China - Russia combined. Brezinski’s view - Grand Chessboard Style - He who commands Eurasia - Rules the World!
2018 US National Security Strategy has adapted accordingly, Pear Competitors and Strategic Rivals are the focus, not merely militants. US enemies are now listed as 4 + 1 = Russia, China, North Korea, Iran + Terrorism. (Terrorism is the fifth level of priority - a lesson for Pakistan). A Neo Cold War of sorts is brewing. Washington and EU are at odds with Moscow. The recent expulsion of Western and Russian diplomats is the latest spat. Still Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China combined are two big for containment by Washington’s Western Alliance.
Moreover, 3 of America’s historical allies are now merely friends, Turkey, Pakistan and South Korea. In each of the three regions Turkey, Pakistan and South Korea’s interests are at variance or odds with USA. Interestingly, all three want peace in their respective regions while safeguarding their National Interests. USA wants Intervention, Chaos, Wars or Conflict in its perceived ends. Still USA needs them and Turkey, Pakistan; South Korea shall remain Semi Allies in the future.
India remains Uncertain, Unreliable, and Unpredictable for USA and vice versa. For all of Modi’s chest thumping and global profile, India is not destined to be a Global Power or even enjoy Regional Dominance. Despite its oversized Geopolitical Agenda!
Middle East: The caldron is boiling. With Iraq, Libya, Syria destroyed the Centre of Gravity has shifted to Saudi - GGC - Gulf. While Saudi Arabia is in a reform mode with its Dynamic and Progressive Crown Prince MBS, the Israel - Iran War threat increases! President Trump’s new NSA John Bolton augments the Iran War Lobby.
Syria is not only destroyed but Geo Strategically complicated. With ISIS defeat and looking towards distant lands Syria still remains Multi Wars.
• US vs Russia / Damascus Government
• Turkey vs Kurdish Militants in Syria
• Iran - against Israel from Syria
• Israel - against Iran and Syria
The Israelis want to prevent a Land Bridge between Tehran and the Mediterranean. An Israeli - Iran Future War looms over the horizon.
Need for Global Peace:
USA needs to work on a Cooperative Global Scenario. America First can mean America led it does not mean America controlled!
USA is still the Leading Power but its Geostrategic abilities will plummet if it goes against the interests of key states like Turkey, Pakistan, South Korea and others in the Non Polar Era.
Pakistan can be a winner:
The Non Polar Era provides a favourable Geo Strategic Environment for Pakistan. Pakistan’s COAS Gen Bajwa has displayed acumen and astute understanding of the Zeitgeist. Pakistan can be a winner in the New Era.
Pakistan’s Political Elite is a bane for Pakistan and the world, embroiled as they are in endless squabbles and hopelessly divided. Still the soldiers of Pakistan are brave and people resilient. Pakistan can rise in the Non Polar Era.
Internal Stability:
Wiping out all forms of Terrorism/Political Violence/Crime Mafias within Pakistan is the start point.
Balanced Foreign Policy
Geo Economics - Geopolitics with China, Russia but maintain friendship and cooperation with USA / West. Supportive of Saudi GCC, Turkey but maintaining balance with Iran.
India - The Only Enemy
Dispel the impression that Pakistan is in conflict with any state except India, Befriend the rest of the world except India.
Pro-actively support Kashmir
liberation politically and globally.
Dispel the perception of extremists, militants in Pakistan by projecting Pakistan’s Nationalist Narrative.
Brigadier (R) Nadir Mir, is Chairman of Pakistan National Reform Movement (PNRM) and Author of the books “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard” and ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’.