Daily Mail
NEW YORK
One in five people will be over-65 in the world’s leading economies within 15 years, a new report warns, raising fears about the ‘extremely negative’ impact on growth.
Countries including the UK, US, Japan, Germany and France will be classed as ‘super-aged’ by 2030, with economic growth hit by the dramatic rise in the number of people who have stopped working.
The ratings agency Moody’s warned the unprecedented pace of ageing around the world will have a ‘significant negative effect’ on growth in every part of the world.
Moody’s used United Nations definitions to examine which countries would be classed as ‘super-aged’ by 2030. Moody’s used United Nations definitions to examine which countries would beclassed as ‘super-aged’ by 2030. A society is considered to be ‘ageing’ if over-65s make up at least 7 per cent of the population, ‘aged’ when the figure is at least 14 per cent, and when it tops 20 per cent it is considered to be a ‘super-aged’ society
The report warns that countries around the world will see their economies suffer because of a rapidly ageing population
It also means that in many countries the number of people of working age has fallen, meaning fewer employees generating wealth and boosting growth. In a major report examining the impact of older people around the world, Moody’s warns it will ‘dampen economic growth over the next two decades’.
Between 2020 and 2025, the impact of ageing will slow global economic growth by 0.9 per cent, the report adds. It classifies different countries by the proportion of people who are over 65. A society is considered to be ‘ageing’ if over-65s make up at least 7 per cent of the population. It is defined as ‘aged’ when the figure is at least 14 per cent, and when it tops 20 per cent it is considered to be a ‘super-aged’ society. It’s not safe for you here, overwhelmed GP surgery tells patients: Letter sent to 10,000 people tells them they will be turned away unless illness is deemed an emergency. Thousands of OAPs are denied handrails or stairlifts in their homes despite alterations helping to keep them independent
Strictly fun dancing. Pensioners in their 80s bring ballroom to city centre street as they perform elegant steps alongside busking accordion player. The UK, US and Australia are currently classed as ‘aged’, with the over-65s making up 18.1, 14.7 and 15 per cent respectively.
But by 2025, 20 per cent of people in the UK will be over 65, and in 2030 in the US the figure will be 20.1 per cent, meaning both will be classes as ‘super-aged’. Australia will be just outside the super-aged category, on 19.2 per cent.
Only five countries are currently classed as super-aged, but by 2030 the number is expected to reach 34. China is expected to see some of the biggest changes, rising from 9.5 per cent in 2015 to 16.2 per cent by 2030.In Korea the proportion of over-65s is set to almost double, from 13 per cent to 23.4 per cent, in Singapore from 11.2 to 20.5 per cent and in Costa Rica 7.5 to 14.1 per cent.
Just 23 countries will be classes as ‘not-ageing’ by 2030, piling pressure on public services and holding economies back. Moody’s warns that ageing is not just a problem affected the major, developed economies with many emerging markets also affected and the pace of ageing in some of these countries more rapid than in developed economies.
Between 2015 and 2030, the number of people of working age around the world will grow at half the rate seen in the last 15 years, Moody’s warned. All but 23 countries around the world will be classed at least as ‘ageing’ by 2030.
Demographic transition, frequently considered a long-term problem, is upon us now and will significantly lower economic growth. Report author Elena Duggar, a Moody’s Senior Vice President, said: ‘Demographic transition, frequently considered a long-term problem, is upon us now and will significantly lower economic growth.
‘Estimates show that ageing will reduce aggregate annual economic growth by 0.4 percentage point in 2014-19 and by a much larger 0.9 percentage point in 2020-25.’ And ageing population can negatively affect labour markets, with fewer people available to work to support those in retirement or ill health in old age.
It also leads to a reduction in the amount of money families save, reducing investments and curbing growth. Madhavi Bokil, from Moody’s, added: ‘Policy reforms in the medium term which improve labour participations rates, streamline migration, and improve financial flows can partially mitigate the impact of ageing on economic growth.
‘Further, in the long term, innovation and technological progress that improves productivity have the potential to lessen the forecasted dampening effects of the rapid demographic changes.’