India Decides 2024

At the BJP headquarters, Modi ad­dressed his supporters amidst a wave of jubilation. “Today’s victo­ry is the victory of the world’s largest de­mocracy,” he declared, emphasizing the “immense faith” Indian vot­ers had shown in his party and the NDA coalition.

The opposition Indian Na­tional Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.), led by the Indian National Congress, won 232 seats, reflecting a highly competi­tive election that reshaped India’s politi­cal landscape.

Let’s look at the key areas where BJP lost its majority:

In Uttar Pradesh, a traditional BJP stronghold, saw a fierce battle between the NDA and I.N.D.I.A. The NDA secured 36 seats while I.N.D.I.A. took 43 seats, with the Samajwadi Party winning 37. Compared to 2019’s 62 seats, this marks a significant shift. Rahul Gandhi secured a massive win in Rae Bareli, with Con­gress reclaiming Amethi and Rae Bareli.

In Punjab, the political arena was in­tense, with the I.N.D.I.A. alliance’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress vy­ing for dominance. Congress secured 7 seats, AAP 3, and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) 1 independently. Notably, inde­pendent candidates, including Sarab­jeet Singh Khalsa, son of Indira Gan­dhi’s assassin, and Amritpal Singh, a pro-Khalistan separatist, made signif­icant wins. However, BJP could not se­cure a single seat.

In Maharashtra, the state’s elector­al dynamics witnessed shifts, with the I.N.D.I.A. alliance clinching 30 seats (Congress 13, Shiv Sena 9, Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) NCP 8) and the NDA securing 17 seats (BJP 9, Shiv Sena 7, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 1). In 2019, BJP had won 23 seats and the Shiv Sena (pre-split) 18. Splits within Shiv Sena and NCP signifi­cantly reshaped the political landscape.

In Tamil Nadu, the I.N.D.I.A. alliance dominated, winning 38 seats (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) 22, Con­gress 9), while the BJP failed to secure any seats. The DMK-led alliance’s clear dominance underscored voter prefer­ence for regional parties.

In Jharkhand, the BJP won 8 seats, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (I.N.D.I.A.) se­cured 3, Congress 2, and All Jharkhand Students Union Party (AJSU) (NDA) 1. Compared to 2019, the BJP lost 3 seats and Congress gained 1.

In Bihar, Janata Dal (NDA) and BJP each won 12 seats, while the Rashtri­ya Janata Dal (I.N.D.I.A.) secured 4 and Congress 3. The BJP lost 5 seats, and Congress gained 2 compared to 2019.

In Haryana, both the BJP and Con­gress won 5 seats each. The BJP lost 5 seats, and Congress gained 5 com­pared to 2019.

In West Bengal the All India Trinamool Congress (I.N.D.I.A.) won 29 seats, while the BJP secured 12 and Congress 1. This highlights the dominance of the I.N.D.I.A. alliance in the state.

Regionally speaking, the breakdown makes for a difficult reading for BJP.

In North India, the BJP experienced losses in UP, Punjab, and Haryana amid rising communal tensions. The Con­gress-I.N.D.I.A. alliance gained in Raj­asthan and Punjab, with regional par­ties like the Samajwadi Party gaining strength in UP and AAP in Punjab.

In West India, internal conflicts led to setbacks for the BJP-NDA in Maha­rashtra. The Congress-I.N.D.I.A. alliance gained ground, with the Shiv Sena split impacting NDA’s performance. Rising communal tensions and economic dis­satisfaction contributed to BJP’s losses.

In East India, The BJP struggled in West Bengal, securing fewer seats. The Congress-I.N.D.I.A. alliance faced chal­lenges against the dominant TMC, which focused on local governance and anti-BJP sentiment.

In South India, the BJP saw gains in Karnataka under the NDA, securing 1 seat in Kerala. The Congress-I.N.D.I.A. al­liance maintained its ground in Kerala, with the DMK dominating Tamil Nadu. Regional party alliances significantly influenced outcomes, reflecting the re­gion’s diverse political landscape.

The broader implications of this are apparent. The election results have left India at a crossroads, with a hung par­liament potentially leading to an inward focus. This shift could reshape domes­tic policies and significantly impact its foreign affairs strategy. The Congress-I.N.D.I.A. alliance’s gains by address­ing pressing domestic issues signal a change on the horizon.

However, amidst this political flux, there is a troubling possibility: could the BJP resort to orchestrating another Gu­jarat-style massacre or a Pulwama-like event to sway public sentiment, as seen in 2019? Such divisive tactics have prov­en effective in the past.

For Pakistan, these developments are alarming, especially given recent state­ments regarding Azad Jammu and Kash­mir (AJK). Regional tensions are sim­mering, with renewed concerns about Indian terrorism in Pakistan and diplo­matic spats with neighboring countries like the Maldives and Sri Lanka. India’s involvement in transnational killings in Canada and Pakistan, and assassina­tion attempts in the United States casts doubt on its international conduct and security apparatus.

In the aftermath of these polls, India’s trajectory poses crucial questions for the region and the globe. As the world’s larg­est democracy navigates this new chap­ter, how will it balance internal priori­ties with global ambitions? What threats does this new India pose to regional sta­bility and global security? The implica­tions will reverberate far beyond its bor­ders, shaping the geopolitical landscape for years to come.

As dawn breaks on this new era, the world watches closely, waiting to see how India, with its rich tapestry of cul­tural and political diversity, will chart its course in the years ahead. The stakes are high, and the journey promises to be as complex and vibrant as the nation itself. Finding a careful balance between secu­rity and the needs of citizens is essential.

Haleema Khalid
The writer is the Chief Editor and Research Lead at the South Asia Times (SAT), an Islamabad-based research and media lab. She can be reached on X, formerly Twitter, at@Ms_HKS.