As the Russian-Ukraine war enters its 12th day, there is still no indication of when the conflict will end in the near future. Ukraine forces are unable to face the wrath of the Russian invasion. It is pertinent to analyse the present situation and the effects of this war.
An overview of the situation reflects the division of the world in support of Russia and against it. The US has not been able to influence countries to unanimously vote against Russia for invading Ukraine. In the final tally, 141 countries supported the resolution in UNGA, with just five voting against and another 35 abstaining. Asia Pacific seems to be largely under the influence of the US.
Within this region just two countries voted against the resolution: Russia itself and North Korea. 14 Asia-Pacific countries not only voted in favour but co-sponsored the resolution: Australia, Cambodia, Fiji, Japan, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, New Zealand, Palau, Papua New Guinea, South Korea, Samoa, Singapore, and Timor-Leste.
Central Asian countries evidently are under Russian influence, which is a big indication for resistance to US desires in the region. None of the five Central Asian republics voted in favour of the motion; all either abstained or did not participate in the vote at all. In South Asia, countries were evenly divided, with four supporting the resolution—Afghanistan, Bhutan, the Maldives, and Nepal—and four abstaining—Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
An Islamabad-based think tank, the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) has carried out a discourse analysis of the conflict. They carried out a twitter analysis on March 3–4 of 50 thousand tweets, comparing two opposing hashtags; #IStandWithPutin and #IStandWithUkraine. The findings reveal a bifurcation among social media users. English was the dominant language used across both hashtags.
Tweets in Urdu and Hindi were in support of #IStandWithPutin and tweets originating in German and French were supporting #IStandwithUkraine. The findings clearly reflect a divided world on the Russia-Ukraine war. These distinctions were most marked when comparing user location data, which shows a clearer difference between what is widely understood as the ‘West’ on one side and the ‘Global South’ or the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) countries on the other.
Every state’s stance and position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been carefully calibrated based on a broad range of interests and issues; the digital landscape shows a divided world, or a re-emergence of a new Cold War. The UNGA voting pattern and discourse analysis clearly reflects that the world is divided on the issue.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has manifold ramifications. It has brought global and regional confrontations to the edge and pushed the world once again towards a cold war. The US has already partially sanctioned Russia, but China has refused to abide by the US sanctions. Germany and the rest of the EU is dependent on Russian gas.
OPEC countries are exploiting the conflict and have raised oil prices to over $100 per barrel, but this looks to be a temporary raise as most Asian countries export oil from OPEC and the consistent rise in prices may jeopardise the market, thus indirectly affecting the national politics of buyer countries. Moreover, if oil consumption is reduced or managed by oil-purchasing countries, it will reverse the effects towards OPEC. The US provocation of Russia in Ukraine has given them some advantages. It has put pressure on Germany and Russia for Nord stream-2—it has brought Russia under pressure for its gas supply to the EU. It might have distracted Russia from China for a while.
The conflict will leave millions of refugees at the mercy of other nations. So far, 1.5 million Ukraine citizens have already fled the country while more are lined up. Mariupol city is besieged and efforts are being made to evacuate the trapped civilians. The situation in Mariupol is extremely dangerous. Meanwhile, Mastercard and Visa operations have been suspended in Russia. The Foreign Minister of Ukraine has asked for fighter jets and air defence systems from the US. NATO’s refusal to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine is another blow for Kyiv. The IMF has also expressed their concerns on the effects of the war on the global economy.
According to John Meirshiemer, it is the US who is to be blamed for this post-cold war disorder. In pursuit of a liberal hegemony, the frequency of US military deployments has been six times greater in the period between 1990 and 2017 than in the 200 years spanning 1789 and 1989.The seven wars initiated by the administrations of Bill Clinton, George W Bush, and Barack Obama have failed to achieve any meaningful success and it has cost roughly $5.6 trillion, in addition to an estimated 370,000 civilians and combatants killed.
War has revived the theoretical concept of realism, which might be a big blow to liberalism. The nation states in an anarchic world are responsible for self-defence and nobody else will come to their rescue. The nation states surviving in a vulnerable geo-strategic environment will increase their military spending. Countries will rush for military hardware which will strengthen the military-industrial complex.
India and Japan are already the biggest buyers of military hardware. More EU nations will now come forward to purchase arms and ammunition. Germany has already announced an increase in their defence spending. Supremacy in airpower will remain the priority of nation states to solidify their respective defences. It will definitely hamper the efforts for nuclear non-proliferation.
Pakistan seems to be getting strategic autonomy, at least in this conflict. On Sunday, Prime Minister Imran Khan categorically snubbed the EU demand to oppose the Russian move. He said that Pakistan was not there to serve EU interests. As a sovereign country, we would take a decision which is best for our country.
Pakistan has been a reluctant partner to the US due to the former’s keen interest in the South Asian region. But it is China’s strategic partner now. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship programme of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Pakistan is crafting new relations with Russia. Though US forces have withdrawn from Afghanistan, it still maintains its influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan has never lowered its guard and the nation is proud to have ever-vigilant and the most professional armed forces in the world.
Dr Atique Ur Rehman
The writer is a political and defence analyst based in Islamabad and holds a PhD in International Relations. He can be reached at atiquesheikh
2000@gmail.com.