In the prequel article, the strategic realism of Eretz Israel was associated with Politics of River(s) and borders through the application of evidence-based reasoning to examine (identify and observe) the trends, trajectory and patterns of political events. In context of deal of the century of Middle East Peace Plan, the Biden Presidency can potentially change the course from slow to fast track.
The noteworthy question is the continuation of Trump’s policy of non-intervention during Biden’s Presidency. Therefore, the US foreign policy gains much importance due to its significant influence on geopolitics and Middle Eastern Politics. The complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan is not limited to possible signal to end the Global War on Terror but potential future Grand Strategy.
The US foreign policy shift marks shift in geopolitics. The MEPP-DoTC is an economic plan which reflects the emergence of Geoeconomics. Therefore, new geopolitical scenarios depend on US Grand Strategy and Geoeconomics. As famous geopolitical theorist puts it: ‘All politics is geopolitics, Allstrategy is geostrategy.’
Diplomacy through the deal of the century revolves around the Middle East Peace Plan which also indicates the role and presence of western powers in political events occurring in Middle East. However, the US Grand Strategy must be taken into account for any policy analysis. The strategic shift from military-oriented view for solving problems to non-traditional and non-military approach to Middle Eastern Politics leads to much potential for Economic progress, development and success.
The US Middle East Policy under Biden Presidency reflects shift in US Grand Strategy to initiate pursuit of Security Pacts, Peace Treaties, Diplomatic Arrangements, Political Agreements, Joint Alliances, Military cooperation, Economic Union and Strategic Accords. This can potentially reshape Middle East into most developed region in the world. However, the question of Israel is not exclusive to the MEPP-DoTC.
Muslim countries prioritise stability, peace and order - as the phase of Global War on Terror led to destabilization, disarray and destruction on huge scale in Islamic lands. The experience of proxy wars, armed conflicts and organized violence has led to realization for importance of seeking solution rather than adding to problems. This needs to be followed by appropriate Strategy.
Contextually, the MEPP-DoTC deals with Abrahamic Accords which promises returns for Christians, Jewish and Islamic countries in order to enter into diplomatic relationship focusing on mutual economic relationship. The US foreign policy can reflect the respective Grand Strategy in the complex regional and global environment.
An economic solution to political conflict is inevitable in Middle East and other regions in the world. Question: Will MEPP-DoTC will be instrumental in building platform for Muslim-Christian-Jew cooperation, coordination and collaboration in Middle East as well as other regions. Pakistan’s Economic Diplomacy plan has been announced as top priority program as part of foreign policy and economic policy as reflected in MENA Policy OutreachInitiatives in ambit of Economic Diplomacy.
What does it mean for Pakistan’s relation with the West? This needs to be studied under the umbrella of US Grand Strategy in Geopolitics, Geoeconomics and Geo strategy.
Historical discourse and Analysis of US Grand Strategy can provide insight to geopolitics. During the World War, the adversary to US was Germany (threat: challenging modern nation-state system on global level). During the Cold War, the adversary was Soviet Union (threat: challenging the structure of Nation-State system).
During the Global War on Terror, the adversary were the non-state actors as well as failed and rogue states (threat: challenging on state level). The world wars and cold war were European-oriented. After announcement of complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the strategic planning for next phase must be done in Pakistan.
Economic Diplomacy can bring much benefit to Pakistan.However, the threat remains in the conflictual nature of anarchic global system. The liberal setting of economic world order has led to strategic competition between the US and China, although, both countries benefit from economic liberalism. Pakistan must focus on balancing its relation between US and China; as well as, West-East in wider perspective.
Pakistan’s National Security and National Interest is tied into the strategic balance between the US and China. As focus shifts on Middle East due to Israel-oriented MEPP-DoTC, the region is experiencing dynamic changes in its political settings.
The security challenge is to establish strategic diplomatic balance between East and West as China enters into major Strategic Accord with Iran. This is a direct threat to Eretz Israel as China-Iran strategic alliance will lead to latter’s influence in Syraq corridor – corresponding to east-west-north border of Eretz Israel.
The elimination of top Iranian figures such as IRGC commander and Nuclear scientist followed by attacks on Iranian Nuclear plant at Natanz depicts the level of emerging security threats in the region. In order to ensure survival and success of economic plans, Russia’s diplomacy can prove to be instrumental in ensuring peace and avoiding conflict.
However, the proximity of fault lines at Syraq corridor has led Russia to pursue intensification in demanding elimination of the presence of Iranian assets and positions in Syria as well as supporting checks and balances on Iranian Nuclear program as agreed with EU. This leads to Securitisation as Strategic Realism of Eretz Israel would lead to high-level contestation between US and China. Russia’s diplomatic position in Syria can prove to be neutralizer effect.
Therefore, Damascus can have morecomparatively powerful role to play than Jerusalem or Tel Avivas the strategic balancer between West and East will relatively need strength from Security Pacts, Peace Treaties, Diplomatic Arrangements, Political Agreements, Joint Alliances, Military cooperation, Economic Union and Strategic Accords. It is evident in the latest reports regarding the Iraqi efforts for Saudi Arab-Iran reconciliation.
This was followed by report regarding India-Pakistan talks for Peace in United Arab Emirates. The US Grand Strategy is not exclusive to Middle East diplomacy. The US recognition of Armenian genocide to pressurize Turkeyas well as the one of the largest ever NATO’s military forces build-up on Ukrainian-Russian border followed by new round of anti-Russia sanctions are in line with US withdrawal from Afghanistan, US-China talks in Anchorage (Alaska), US-Central Asian Republics talks, JCPOA talks and other political events to align Grand Strategy with geoeconomics and geostrategy in context of geoeconomics.
As US Grand Strategy revolves around MEPP-DoTC, the role of Russia, China, Iran, Turkeyand other countries on regional and global which can potentially perform adversarial role, they have been target of indirect strategy of US in order to pursue strategic realism of Eretz Israel. This leads to Securitisation of Peace and Deals.
‘Russia in Syria’ and ‘China in Iran’ can potentially lead to controlled rivalry in Iraq. Turkey, historically, has intervened in Iraq. US-Russia as Joint Protectorate seeks to establish common ground in Damascus. Iraq is more prone to war – as a conflict zone, which might be thrown form frying pan into fire due to organized violence and armed conflict arising through US-NATO-EU-Russia-Turkey-Iran-China contest for controlling Syraq.
Pakistan can also play significant role in pursuing Strategic balance between West and East. Pakistan’s foreign policy shift to balance between US and China can lead to solutions pertaining to mutual issue and problems between the two global powers. Securitisation of Peace and Deals is associated with Economy.
The Economic Diplomacy of Pakistan can lead to countering of conflictual and anarchic relations. Iran is situated between Syraq and Afpak. Iran-KSA reconciliation in Baghdad (Iraq) is as important as India-Pakistan Peace talks in U.A.E.Therefore, Pakistan needs to pursue Evidence-based reasoning regarding the trends, trajectory and patterns of political events in the context of US Grand Strategy and Geopolitics in order to pursue geo strategy in geoeconomics.
In accordance with Strategic Realism, the Politics of Rivers depicted the East-West as well as North-South borders of Eretz Israel which are potentially threatened by China and Iran in Syraq corridor. This leads to political competition at North and East border of Eretz Israel.
The political events in 2020-21 in the proximity of North-South-West-East borders of Eretz Israel can be observed (examining and identifying) through evidence-based reasoning regarding the respective patterns, trends and trajectories. In part 1, the political events depictingeschatological signs were studied in context of Eretz Israel.
However, strategic realism of Eretz Israel is dependent upon the role and presence of western powers – which can also be studied through eschatological framework. This deals with contemporary and current political events connecting the Security Policy and Security Strategy of countries from West and East.
The major stakeholders from West are US, EU, UK, NATO, EUand Russia. The major stakeholders from East are Turkey, China, Iran, KSA, Gulf countries, Egypt and Jordan. Israel and Russian can subjectively be considered EurAsian countries. Syria and Iraq are the platform. Eschatologically, the role and presence of western powers and forces incrementally increase which can deduced through Strategy (in Geopolitics and Geoeconomics).
The potential success in KSA-Iran reconciliation through Iraq in first stage leads to second stage for Security Pacts, Peace Treaties, Diplomatic Arrangements, Political Agreements, Joint Alliances, Military cooperation, Economic Union and Strategic Accords between western and eastern bloc through diplomacy in Syria.
However, coercive diplomacy can not be ruled out in context of Eretz Israel which can lead to subsequent plans, programs and policies (as well as procedures) as the strategic balance between ‘Russia in Syria’ and ‘China in Iran’ can lead to possibility of diplomatic unification of east-west bloc in Syria. Any potential conflict (proxy war) in Iraq must be overcome. Turkey, Egypt, Iran and KSA can play significant role through mutual dialogue.
The Abrahamic Dialogue must not reduce MEPP-DoTC toabsoluteness of Israeli interests. There is more possibility for mutual benefit through cooperation, coordination and collaboration between Christians, Jews and Muslims (east-west bloc) in Syria.
The political events listed in paragraph six can be traced to eschatological position on the evidence-based reasoning regarding patterns, trends and trajectories of the relative political events occurring in MENA region in context of western ‘post-Ertez Israel’ strategic realism, too. The most important link ofNorth (Syria-Turkey border) - South (Al-Ula) - East (Euphrates) - West (Nile) borders of Eretz Israel with Iran is its connectivity with Syraq - AfPak corridors, which is related to US Grand strategy and geopolitics.
China can assert its position through Iran’s influence in Iraq. In response, Russia would dominate Syria in order to secure the Syraq corridor from US-China competition. China’s resistance and refusal to stop propping Iran can lead to Joint US-Russia efforts against Iran which would lead to consolidated western efforts to control the Syraq – Afpak corridor in order to securethe trade routes and connectivity nodes. Therefore, any potential conflict ‘leading to war’ can be avoided through strategic balance in Middle East. Undoubtedly, the cause and effect behind any scenario is relate to Eretz Israel.