Donald Trump’s stunning 2024 comeback wasn’t just a victory for him; it was a stark repudiation of Washington’s somewhat insular political establishment, particularly the Democrats. As inflation surged, housing prices spiralled, and Americans grappled with rising fuel costs, Trump’s message of economic revival found fertile ground in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Between 2019 and 2023, food prices jumped 25%, and gas prices soared by 50% over four years. The cost of living for working-class Americans became untenable, even as Wall Street flourished. As The Financial Times observed, these struggles fuelled a populist backlash that Trump successfully harnessed. Voters tired of endless foreign wars and mounting debt rallied to his “America First” promise, with only 4% citing foreign policy as their top issue.
Trump’s win wasn’t just about economic grievances. It was also a cultural battle. His rhetoric of restoring “traditional American values” against the growing influence of the left struck a chord with many voters alienated by rapid social changes. Notably, he captured 54% of the Latino male vote, a major leap from 2016, showing that his economic nationalism resonates across racial lines.
Trump’s outsized influence also received support from figures like Elon Musk, who donated nearly $119 million to political groups backing him. This, combined with Musk’s controversial social media activity, has raised questions about the role of billionaires in shaping elections. But Trump’s ability to use such controversies to fuel his outsider image only strengthened his appeal to the disaffected.
Despite his resounding victory, Trump inherits a fractured nation. The election revealed profound divisions: for his supporters, he’s the saviour from a progressive agenda; for critics, his election deepens a democratic crisis. Kamala Harris’s dignified concession contrasted with Trump’s repeated, baseless claims of electoral fraud. His rhetoric, fostering distrust in the democratic process, has left a lasting scar on American political culture.
Legal battles, impeachments, and criminal charges were supposed to derail Trump’s campaign. Instead, they galvanized his base. His legal troubles have been weaponized into a symbol of resistance against what many see as a corrupt political establishment.
While Trump will claim a mandate, the reality is far more complex. The 2024 race saw the highest voter turnout in decades, underscoring the deep polarization at play. His victory is founded not on national unity but on division, from contentious issues like abortion to race and climate change. The question remains whether Trump’s presidency can heal these rifts or deepen them further.
The Republican Party, reshaped in Trump’s populist image, now faces a challenge: balancing his fervent base with those yearning for a less divisive party. Trump’s control over the party is near absolute, and with the new Senate majority, he has the power to enact his agenda, confirming judicial and executive nominees critical to shaping America’s future.
Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, if it persists, will continue to pull the U.S. away from multilateralism. The geopolitical fallout will be significant. Relations with China will remain tense, with Trump’s hardline stance escalating trade wars and regional insecurity. On the global stage, his policies could strain NATO, destabilize markets, and weaken U.S. leadership on issues like climate change and human rights.
If Trump’s neo-isolationism succeeds, international security may suffer. His reluctance to engage in foreign conflicts could lead to a power vacuum, emboldening authoritarian regimes, notably in Russia, Brazil, and Hungary. At the same time, Trump’s populism is likely to embolden right-wing movements worldwide.
For countries like Pakistan, Trump’s return presents an opportunity to recalibrate relations with the U.S. His administration’s focus on economic self-interest could make it easier for Pakistan to pivot away from China, seeking trade and financial partnerships with the West, especially if it leverages ties with Saudi Arabia.
Trump’s 2024 victory signals a new chapter in both American and global politics. His brand of populism and economic nationalism has reshaped U.S. domestic politics, but its global ramifications are just as profound. As Georgetown University’s Charles Kupchan recently argued, Trump’s pragmatism may deliver better results, for example end of the Ukraine war, than the ideological battles dominating Washington. But at what cost to democracy and international stability?
With America now more polarized than ever, Trump’s presidency promises to challenge not just the future of U.S. politics, but the trajectory of global geopolitics for years to come.
Yousuf Nazar
The writer is the former head of Citigroup’s emerging markets investments. He is the author of ‘The Gathering Storm: Pakistan’s Political Economy of a Security State.